In examining President-elect Donald Trump's potential approach to the Ukraine war, there's a suggestion that he may pursue a resolution that favours Russian interests. From a game theory perspective, the United States currently imposes numerous sanctions on Russia. These restrictions are extensive: they limit Russia's access to international financial systems, prohibit transactions involving Russian sovereign debt, restrict imports of Russian oil, gas, and coal, and impose barriers on energy-related services connected to Russian production and exploration. These sanctions collectively aim to constrain Russia's economic capacity to continue its war efforts.
If the incoming Trump administration seeks to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine, a logical step might involve easing or even entirely removing these sanctions. By lifting restrictions, Trump could create an environment where Russia’s economy has the opportunity to recover and expand. This expansion would align with Russia’s interests and, in theory, could provide sufficient incentive for Russia to end hostilities with Ukraine.
However, taking this approach poses substantial risks. By lifting sanctions, the United States would likely strain its relationships with key allies who support these measures as part of a united front against Russian aggression. Such a move could be perceived by allies as an alignment with Russian interests, potentially triggering a backlash, including trade restrictions or other diplomatic consequences directed at the United States. This situation places the U.S. in a dominated strategy position: any choice that eases sanctions risks damaging its alliances and diplomatic standing, while maintaining sanctions could limit pathways to a peace agreement.
In this scenario, we face a "no-win" situation for the United States, where efforts to negotiate a favorable deal for Russia may lead to unintended consequences that weaken U.S. influence globally. Thus, President-elect Trump's options seem constrained, and any attempt to forge a peace agreement that provides Russia with a positive payoff could come at a steep diplomatic cost.
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