By J André Faust (Nov 10, 2024)
It is puzzling why Trump seems to garner so much support from some Canadians. This sentiment echoes from the streets, coffee shops, and across social media. At first glance, it seems illogical: first, as Canadians, we don’t have a vote in the United States; and second, his protectionist policies could ripple unfavourably throughout the Canadian economy from coast to coast.
To understand Trump’s protectionist stance, let’s briefly examine the impacts of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) and some key trade restrictions his administration placed on Canada:
Steel and Aluminum Tariffs
In March 2018, the Trump administration imposed tariffs of 25% on Canadian steel and 10% on Canadian aluminum, citing national security under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act. In response, Canada implemented retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, including steel, aluminum, and various consumer items. Although these tariffs were eventually lifted in May 2019 after negotiations, they marked a shift in U.S.-Canada trade relations.
Softwood Lumber Tariffs
Trump's administration claimed Canadian provinces were unfairly subsidizing the lumber industry, resulting in duties ranging from 10% to 24% on Canadian softwood lumber imports. This impacted construction costs and strained trade relations.
Dairy Trade Restrictions
During the USMCA renegotiation, Trump criticized Canada’s dairy supply management system, which limited U.S. imports to protect Canadian farmers. The USMCA required Canada to ease restrictions on U.S. dairy, poultry, and egg products.
Threatened Tariffs on Auto Imports
Trump repeatedly threatened tariffs on Canadian auto imports as part of a broader negotiation strategy, though these were never enacted. This tactic pushed Canada to make concessions during USMCA talks.
These measures, most of which were lifted or adjusted by the end of Trump’s presidency as USMCA took effect in July 2020, underscored his "America First" approach. This stance brought a new tension to U.S.-Canada trade relations, favouring U.S. interests at Canada’s expense.
When it comes to trade, Canada’s bargaining power with the U.S. is limited. As such, USMCA primarily benefits the United States. Realistically, given the power disparity, it hardly matters if Trudeau or Poilievre is in office—the dynamic remains a zero-sum game where the United States typically benefits to Canada’s disadvantage.
So, why do some Canadians appear to support a foreign leader whose policies could jeopardize Canada’s economic relationship with the United States? Given that Canada’s economy is highly integrated with the U.S.—particularly through trade that supports agriculture and energy exports—this seems counterintuitive. Nonetheless, ideological and cultural alignments sometimes supersede economic pragmatism.
Here are a few factors that might explain why Trump’s protectionism hasn’t dissuaded some Canadians from supporting him:
Ideology Over Economics
For some supporters, ideology outweighs economic concerns. Canadians who align with Trump’s values—such as strong borders, nationalism, or conservative social policies—may view his economic policies as secondary. They might even believe Canada could adapt or benefit from a renegotiated relationship, hoping it fosters self-sufficiency.
Misperceptions of Economic Impact
Not all Canadians fully understand the risks protectionism poses to our economy. Tariffs and trade barriers may seem abstract, especially if they don’t immediately affect daily life. Media portrayals often simplify or sensationalize economic issues, making the true consequences of protectionist policies harder to grasp.
Discontent with Canadian Policy and Institutions
Some Canadians dissatisfied with the current state of Canadian politics or institutions may see Trump as a desirable alternative, even if his policies could harm Canada’s economy. This perspective often reflects a desire for radical change, regardless of the economic logic for Canada.
Belief in U.S.-Canada Resilience
Some Canadians assume that the close Canada-U.S. relationship would shield us from the full effects of American protectionism. They might believe that U.S. businesses, particularly those reliant on Canadian resources, would press against harsh tariffs, thereby maintaining some stability despite Trump’s policies.
Populism and National Pride
Canadian populist sentiments sometimes mirror those in the U.S., advocating for national pride and reduced global dependence. Trump’s rhetoric may inspire Canadians who believe in reducing reliance on U.S. or international trade, especially those favouring local industry, even at a cost.
Canada’s negotiating power with the U.S. is indeed limited, and a protectionist American leader could seriously impact critical Canadian sectors like manufacturing, agriculture, and energy. However, when ideology and populism come into play, economic concerns may take a back seat. Some Canadians may assume that, despite protectionist measures, Canada’s adaptability and resource-based economy could provide stability through turbulent times.
Summary
Donald Trump's administration implemented protectionist policies that negatively impacted Canada’s economy, such as tariffs on steel and aluminum, which were later lifted in 2019, and restrictions on dairy trade, as well as threats of auto tariffs. Despite these policies, which disrupted sectors of the Canadian economy, some Canadians continue to support Trump. For these individuals, ideological alignment with Trump on issues like nationalism and conservative social values often outweighs concerns about economic impacts. Additionally, some Canadians hold misconceptions about the effect of protectionist policies, believe in the resilience of the U.S.-Canada relationship to withstand economic tension, or seek alternatives to Canadian policy and institutions. Populist views favouring economic independence and national pride further contribute to Trump’s appeal, despite risks to Canada’s economic stability. These findings underscore the way cultural values often eclipse economic pragmatism in shaping political preferences.
Conclusion
In examining the support some Canadians have for Donald Trump despite his protectionist policies, it becomes clear that ideology can overshadow practical economic concerns. Although Trump’s policies—such as tariffs, restrictions, and trade renegotiations—have adversely affected Canada, including initial tariffs on steel and aluminum later lifted in 2019, his supporters persist due to deeper ideological and cultural affinities. This alignment demonstrates a broader trend: cultural identity and ideology frequently override economic interests, shaping public opinion in unexpected ways. While Canada’s reliance on the United States creates a vulnerable trade position, many supporters seem to believe Canada’s adaptability and close economic ties with the U.S. will sustain stability despite protectionist policies.
