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Sunday, November 23, 2025

Sedition, Death Penalties and a System Under Strain

A digital illustration of Donald Trump standing in front of dark authoritarian-style architecture, holding a large piece of a shattered United States Constitution. The background features deep red tones, storm clouds, and damaged pillars. A glowing blue border frames the image, and the words “Towards Authoritarianism” are displayed along the bottom.

By J. André Faust (Nov 23, 2025)

Sedition, Death Penalties, and a System Under Strain: What Trump’s Latest Outburst Reveals

When President Donald Trump accused six Democratic lawmakers of “seditious behaviour, punishable by death” for reminding military personnel that they are not required to follow illegal orders, it marked a turning point in American political discourse. As reported by multiple outlets (BBC News, 2025; The Guardian, 2025; WMTW Maine, 2025), the president’s posts escalated routine political disagreement into language associated with treason and capital punishment.

The lawmakers’ message—rooted in established military law—emphasised that service members must refuse illegal orders. This principle has been reaffirmed for decades, including in United States v. Keenan (1969), which held that obeying “patently illegal orders” is not a defence. Yet Trump reframed their reminder as sedition, calling for arrest, trial, and even suggesting execution (BBC News, 2025).

This reaction triggered bipartisan concern, institutional responses, and physical security measures. It also triggered something else: a substantial shift in the probability landscape described by the Unified Theory of Probabilistic Connections (UTPC), my framework for understanding how events create branching pathways of potential futures.


What the Lawmakers Actually Said

The six Democrats—all military or intelligence veterans—stated plainly:

  • Service members must obey lawful orders.
  • They must refuse illegal or unconstitutional orders.
  • Their oath is to the Constitution, not a president.

None referenced any specific policy. Their concern, as stated, was the rule of law and constitutional limits (BBC News, 2025; Slotkin, 2025).


Trump’s Reaction: Sedition, Arrests, and Capital Punishment

The president posted three escalating messages:

  • “SEDITIOUS BEHAVIOR AT THE HIGHEST LEVEL… ARRESTED AND PUT ON TRIAL…”
  • “LOCK THEM UP???”
  • “SEDITIOUS BEHAVIOR, punishable by DEATH!”

He also reposted a user calling for the lawmakers to be hanged (The Guardian, 2025).

This is not normal democratic rhetoric. It is punishment language wrapped in the vocabulary of treason. It equates a lawful constitutional reminder with sedition. It positions elected officials as enemies of the state. It openly entertains execution as a political consequence.


Institutional Reactions: Alarm and Division

1. Maine’s Entire Delegation Responds

All four members—Republican, Independent, and Democrats—condemned Trump’s statements (WMTW Maine, 2025). Their responses include:

  • Sen. Susan Collins: Such comments “risk sparking political violence.”
  • Sen. Angus King: The reaction shows “contempt for the Constitution.”
  • Rep. Chellie Pingree: “Disgusting… terrifying.”
  • Rep. Jared Golden: Service members have a duty to disobey illegal orders.

2. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer

On the Senate floor, Schumer stated:

“The president of the United States is calling for the execution of elected officials… some of his supporters may very well listen.” (C-SPAN, 2025)

3. Security Measures in Motion

House leadership is coordinating with Capitol Police to protect the lawmakers and their families (BBC News, 2025). When political rhetoric triggers security intervention, the system has reached a dangerous threshold.

4. White House and Speaker Mike Johnson: Defence and Reframing

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt denied Trump wanted executions but then accused the lawmakers of encouraging military personnel to defy “lawful orders” (The Guardian, 2025). House Speaker Mike Johnson defended Trump, saying he was “defining the crime of sedition” (BBC News, 2025).

This partisan split over the meaning of “sedition” represents a form of constitutional fragmentation.


A Climate Already Primed for Violence

The BBC contextualised these remarks within a period of rising political violence, including:

  • Two assassination attempts targeting Trump.
  • The assassination of commentator Charlie Kirk.
  • An arson attack on a governor’s home.
  • Murders of elected officials.
  • Swatting attempts on both Republicans and Democrats.

Eighty-five percent of Americans believe political violence is increasing (Pew Research Center, 2025).


Why This Fits the Unified Theory of Probabilistic Connections of Complex Systems (UTPCCS)

1. A Single Node Produces an Expanding Web of Outcomes

Trump’s posts created branching pathways involving:

  • Institutional condemnation
  • Partisan alignment
  • Security escalation
  • Civil-military tension
  • Media narratives
  • Public anxiety

2. Feedback Loops Determine Which Branches Strengthen

Bipartisan condemnation pushes toward constitutional stability. Defence by high-ranking Republicans pushes toward authoritarian alignment.

3. Multiple Futures Coexist Until One Collapses

The U.S. now sits in a superposition of potential trajectories:

  • Stabilisation
  • Authoritarian escalation
  • Increased political violence
  • Civil-military breakdown
  • Constitutional confrontation

4. The Quantum Analogy

As in quantum physics, the true “position” of the system becomes clear only at the moment of observation. The UTPC maps the probability field—not the final result.


Conclusion: A System Under Strain

Trump’s rhetoric, institutional reactions, and the broader climate of violence converge into a single conclusion: American democracy is under pressure. Whether this pressure resolves through institutional resilience or through further destabilisation will depend entirely on how key actors respond in the days and weeks ahead.


References

  • BBC News. (2025). Trump calls Democrats’ message to troops seditious behaviour, punishable by death.
  • C-SPAN. (2025). Schumer condemns Trump Truth Social posts calling for arrest of Democrats.
  • The Guardian. (2025). Leavitt says Trump does not want lawmakers executed.
  • Pew Research Center. (2025). Americans’ perceptions of political violence.
  • WMTW Maine. (2025). Maine’s delegation reacts to Trump comments.
  • United States v. Keenan, 50 C.M.R. 564 (1969).

About the Author

J. André Faust writes about the structural entanglements of politics, economics, and society. His work draws on the Unified Theory of Probabilistic Connections to explain how events unfold through branching pathways, feedback loops, and evolving systems. His approach emphasises discipline, coherence, and the continuous revision of beliefs through evidence and reflection.

Wednesday, November 19, 2025

How Canada Shifted From Nation Building to Corporate Welfare

How Canada Shifted From Nation Building to Corporate Welfare

by J. Andre Faust (Nov 19, 2025)

Canada has offered incentives to businesses since the nineteenth century, but the meaning and purpose of those incentives have changed over time. Early support for industry was tied to national development, such as railway construction and western expansion (Norrie, Owram, & Emery, 2008). In the modern era the logic shifted as corporations became international and gained the power to relocate production. This mobility allowed them to pressure governments for tax breaks, grants, and subsidies, a pattern widely documented in political economy research (Helleiner, 2006).


Early Canada: Tariffs and Land Grants (1867 to early 1900s)

In the first decades after Confederation, business incentives were focused on building the country. The National Policy of 1879 introduced high protective tariffs to support Canadian manufacturing (Creighton, 1956). Railway companies received land grants, low interest loans, and other support because transportation infrastructure was essential for national unity and settlement (Berton, 1970).

These early incentives were not tax breaks in the modern sense. Businesses could not threaten to relocate internationally. Canada’s economy was territorially anchored, and incentives were tools for nation building rather than corporate negotiation.

The First Modern Incentives (1930s to 1950s)

The Great Depression, the Second World War, and post-war reconstruction brought the first recognisable business incentives. Capital cost allowances, implemented in the 1940s, permitted companies to deduct machinery depreciation from taxable income (Perry, 1955). Wartime industrial expansion required grants and procurement contracts, which later transformed into peacetime industrial support (Granatstein, 1990).

By the 1950s the federal government also began regional development initiatives to address economic disparities among provinces (Savoie, 1992). Canadian corporations still lacked international mobility, and incentives did not arise from relocation threats.

The Global Shift: Mobility and Leverage (1960s to 1980s)

During the 1960s and 1970s, economic globalisation accelerated. Multinational corporations expanded internationally, production chains spread across borders, and trade policies liberalised. This period marked a major turning point in the bargaining power of corporations (Levitt, 1983).

Canada responded with targeted incentives, including investment tax credits, research and development subsidies such as the Scientific Research and Experimental Development credit, and regional industrial development grants (Dobbin, 1994). These measures were no longer about building the country. They were designed to keep corporations from leaving.

The Contemporary Period: Competing for Global Corporations (1990s to Present)

By the 1990s the mobility of global capital had reached full maturity. Trade agreements such as NAFTA, along with WTO rules, allowed firms to reorganise production on a continental or global basis (Clarkson, 2002). Corporations gained significant leverage by threatening to move production to jurisdictions with lower taxes or better subsidies.

Canada responded by lowering federal corporate tax rates and offering increasingly targeted incentives for automotive plants, aerospace manufacturing, technology firms, natural resource developers, and film and digital media industries (Standing Committee on Finance, 2009). Provincial governments often competed with one another to attract or retain major employers.

This dynamic mirrors global trends where governments provide incentives not solely for economic development but to prevent corporations from relocating to other countries. Researchers describe this pattern as a race to the bottom in corporate taxation and industrial subsidies (Swank, 2006).


Conclusion: How Mobility Shifted Power to Corporations

The history of Canadian business incentives reveals a clear pattern. In the nineteenth century grants and support programmes were aimed at building national infrastructure. In the twentieth century they promoted industrial growth and regional equality. In the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries the meaning shifted. Once corporations gained the ability to operate globally, they also gained leverage. Today incentives are often responses to this mobility. Governments compete for investment while corporations can choose where to locate production.

This change represents a structural shift in the relationship between governments and global capital. It explains how public money began to finance what critics call corporate welfare, and how national economic policy became shaped by international corporate strategies.


References

Berton, P. (1970). The National Dream. McClelland and Stewart.
Clarkson, S. (2002). Uncle Sam and Us: Globalization, Neoconservatism, and the Canadian State. University of Toronto Press.
Creighton, D. (1956). The Road to Confederation. Macmillan of Canada.
Dobbin, F. (1994). Forging Industrial Policy. Cambridge University Press.
Granatstein, J. L. (1990). Canada's War: The Politics of the Mackenzie King Government, 1939–1945. University of Toronto Press.
Helleiner, E. (2006). Towards North American Monetary Union? McGill-Queen's University Press.
Levitt, T. (1983). The globalization of markets. Harvard Business Review, 61(3), 92–102.
Norrie, K., Owram, D., & Emery, J. C. H. (2008). A History of the Canadian Economy. Thomson-Nelson.
Perry, J. (1955). Canadian tax policy and capital cost allowances. Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science, 21(4), 449–462.
Savoie, D. (1992). Regional Economic Development: Canada's Search for Solutions. University of Toronto Press.
Standing Committee on Finance. (2009). Tax Incentives for Industry. Parliament of Canada.
Swank, D. (2006). Tax policy in an era of globalization. International Organization, 60(4), 847–880.


About the Author

J. André Faust explores the structural entanglements of politics, economics, and society through a layered systems perspective. His work follows the principle that understanding emerges when we trace connections, map feedback, and revise beliefs as new information appears. The Connected Mind examines how local events are linked to global networks that shape behaviour and outcomes.

Sunday, November 16, 2025

Persuasion Feedback Loops, Trump, Netanyahu, and the Politics of Resonance

by J. André Faust (Nov 16, 2025)

There is a saying that “politics makes for strange bedfellows,” which refers to strategic alliances between political actors who would otherwise be adversaries but come together to achieve a shared goal. However, when comparing Trump and Netanyahu, this phrase does not apply. A more accurate descriptor is “likeness attracts likeness.” Their relationship is not a marriage of convenience but a resonance of similarity.

Trump and Netanyahu can both be described as Machiavellian, as they seem to follow the philosophy often summarised as “the end justifies the means” in their efforts to maintain leadership control (Machiavelli, 1532/1998). To be fair, most political actors adopt some flavour of Machiavellian strategy, but few do so as openly or as consistently as Trump and Netanyahu, and in different ways, Putin, Zelenskyy, and Xi Jinping.

This discussion highlights the similarities and techniques Trump and Netanyahu use to influence the masses, both domestically and globally. To appreciate these techniques, it is useful to draw on concepts from sociopolitical theory. Three in particular apply here:

  • Homophily – the tendency for similar individuals to cluster.
  • Ideological convergence – shared values that create stable partnerships.
  • Mutual narrative reinforcement – each actor supports and amplifies the other’s myth and messaging.

While Putin and Xi Jinping also employ Machiavellian tactics, the key difference is that their political philosophies diverge sharply from those of Trump and Netanyahu. If a close strategic relationship were to form between Trump and Putin or Trump and Xi, the phrase “politics makes strange bedfellows” would be appropriate. In contrast, the interaction between Trump and Netanyahu can be understood as a phase resonance between similar information systems, where their political signals operate on the same frequency and naturally amplify one another.

Comparison Table, Trump, Netanyahu, Putin, Xi

Concept Meaning Trump & Netanyahu Trump & Putin Trump & Xi Jinping
Strange bedfellows Unlikely partners forced together by circumstance or strategic necessity ❌ No ✔️ Yes ✔️ Yes
Likeness attracts likeness Similar forces naturally align due to shared worldview ✔️ Yes ⚠️ Partially, limited ideological overlap ❌ Not really, alignment is admiration based rather than worldview based
Homophily Similar actors cluster socially or politically ✔️ Yes ❌ No, they do not share political identity ❌ No, entirely different political systems and identities
Phase resonance (4D model) Similar signal patterns reinforce each other ✔️ Strong resonance ⚠️ Weak to moderate, tactical rather than ideological ⚠️ Weak, resonance is psychological (admiration), not structural

Both Trump’s and Netanyahu’s misinformation and denials create a persuasion feedback loop, a self amplifying cognitive system. Rather than addressing the truth, it deflects from it, exploits emotional coherence and group identity, and sustains itself by continuously feeding perception back into belief.

This feedback loop unfolds across five stages: Seeding the Frame, Resonance and Amplification, Emotional Entrenchment, Feedback Reinforcement, and Policy Manifestation. Each stage functions as part of a broader mechanism of influence.

Stage 01, Seeding the Frame

This stage introduces a simple, emotionally loaded claim that creates an immediate emotional “truth” which feels intuitively right to supporters. It works through emotionally charged language, fear, outrage, and patriotism. It anchors abstract ideas such as “violence” or “chaos” to a visible symbol, for example Antifa or Hamas. This low cognitive load messaging is easy to repeat, easy to believe, and serves as the initial emission, a wave packet of meaning entering the public information field.

Stage 02, Resonance and Amplification

The claim is echoed through sympathetic media and social platforms until the message becomes omnipresent and self validating. Repetition triggers the illusory truth effect, where familiarity becomes a substitute for accuracy (Fazio et al., 2015). Social media algorithms prioritise emotionally arousing content, creating amplification bias and helping false or polarising narratives travel faster and farther than corrective information (Vosoughi et al., 2018). Counter narratives are reframed as “attacks” by enemies, such as “fake news,” “deep state,” or “antisemitism.” In four dimensional terms, this is constructive interference: overlapping signals increase amplitude and coherence inside the echo chamber.

Stage 03, Emotional Entrenchment

Belief becomes tied to identity, converting information into belonging. Accepting the message signals loyalty to the in group; rejecting it signals betrayal or alignment with the enemy. Cognitive dissonance discourages reassessment and stabilises belief through emotion. This is phase locking: once waves align in phase, they maintain synchrony and resist decoherence.

Stage 04, Feedback Reinforcement

Opposition fuels confirmation. Criticism is reframed as persecution, and resistance energy is absorbed and re emitted back into the system, strengthening its coherence. This is negative feedback inversion, where attacks become proof that the message was correct all along.

Stage 05, Policy Manifestation

Emotionally solidified narratives translate into real world action. Emotional consensus creates political cover for extraordinary measures; long before evidence is demanded, the decision has already been normalised.

Examples include Trump’s efforts to classify Antifa as a terrorist organisation (U.S. Department of Justice, 2020), or Netanyahu’s military escalations and expanded emergency powers during conflict periods (Haaretz, 2024). This is wave collapse: potential narratives condense into concrete outcomes such as policy, executive orders, or societal polarisation.

How These Stages Apply to Trump and Netanyahu

Seed Claim, Constructing existential threats. Both leaders frame abstract enemies as existential threats. Trump invokes Antifa, immigrants, or the “deep state,” while Netanyahu highlights Hamas, the United Nations, or critics of Israel’s military conduct. Criticism becomes equated with betrayal, and an emotional narrative replaces empirical complexity.

Resonance and Amplification, Echo through loyal media. Trump uses Fox News, Breitbart, and Truth Social as primary echo chambers (Pew Research Center, 2020); Netanyahu uses Channel 14, Israel Hayom, and aligned social media networks to reinforce his framing (The Guardian, 2023). Each dominates their information environment and casts opposing journalism as “enemy propaganda,” producing constructive resonance within the partisan field.

Emotional Entrenchment, Identity as proof of loyalty. Trump ties loyalty to patriotism and “Make America Great Again,” while Netanyahu evokes survival narratives such as “defending the Jewish people” and “never again.” The emotional stakes override policy debate; dissent feels like sacrilege. This phase locking suggests that once emotional coherence is achieved, facts no longer alter belief.

Feedback Reinforcement, Turning criticism into fuel. Fact checking or indictment becomes evidence that “the system fears Trump” (BBC News, 2023). International criticism of Gaza is framed as proof that “the world is against Israel” (Al Jazeera, 2024). Opposition strengthens in group cohesion through negative feedback inversion.

Policy Manifestation, Emotional truths translate into political action. Trump’s narrative culminated in terrorism designations and immigration bans (U.S. Department of Justice, 2020). Netanyahu’s culminated in broad military campaigns framed as self defence, restrictions on dissent, and expanded emergency powers (Haaretz, 2024). Potential narratives condense into tangible political reality.

Structural Parallels

Function Trump Netanyahu 4D connectivity analogue
Threat narrative Antifa, “deep state” Hamas, “international bias” Seed claim, initial emission
Media echo Conservative media Right aligned Israeli media Constructive interference
Identity politics “Patriot” vs “traitor” “Zionist” vs “self hating Jew” Phase locking
Response to criticism “Witch hunt” “Anti Semitic bias” Negative feedback inversion
Result Normalisation of extraordinary measures Justification of indefinite militarisation Wave collapse, policy manifestation

Why does this work, and why is it dangerous? Both leaders exploit the psychological architecture of fear and belonging, turning uncertainty into certainty through repetition. Each creates a closed semantic system in which new information is either assimilated or rejected based on emotional fit rather than evidential truth.

This behaviour is not mere coincidence; it is a shared rhetorical technology, optimised for polarised democracies.


To summarise, unlike Putin or Xi Jinping, whose collaboration with Trump would represent a “strange bedfellows” relationship because their political philosophies are drastically different from Trump’s, Trump and Netanyahu operate from a foundation of similarity. Their alignment enables them to use the same playbook, even if the endgame does not always result in mutual advantage.

When examining Trump’s twenty point “peace plan,” which heavily favours Israel, or his reported request that the president of Israel pardon Netanyahu for war crimes (Reuters, 2025), it becomes clear that both leaders maintain tight control over their narratives. This makes it a challenge to assess how accurate mainstream media is in presenting the reality on the ground.


References

  • Al Jazeera. (2024). Netanyahu rejects UN criticism as biased.
  • BBC News. (2023). Trump indictment reactions and political rhetoric.
  • Fazio, L. K., Brashier, N. M., Payne, B. K., & Marsh, E. J. (2015). Knowledge does not protect against illusory truth. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 144(5), 993–1002.
  • Haaretz. (2024). Netanyahu’s emergency powers and wartime governance.
  • Machiavelli, N. (1998). The Prince (Q. Skinner, Ed.). Cambridge University Press. (Original work published 1532)
  • Pew Research Center. (2020). U.S. media polarization and the 2020 election.
  • Reuters. (2025). Trump’s 20 point Middle East peace proposal and Israeli response.
  • The Guardian. (2023). Israel’s Channel 14 and the rise of pro government media.
  • U.S. Department of Justice. (2020). Statement on Antifa and domestic terrorism.
  • Vosoughi, S., Roy, D., & Aral, S. (2018). The spread of true and false news online. Science, 359(6380), 1146–1151.

About the Author

J. André Faust explores the structural entanglements of politics, economics, and society through a layered systems approach. His work focuses on tracing feedback loops, identifying hidden architectures of influence, and examining how narratives evolve within complex, interconnected environments. Guided by the principle that understanding requires both observation and revision, he works to illuminate how beliefs form, shift, and solidify within dynamic social systems.

Sunday, November 9, 2025

Trump’s Gaza Peace Plan: What the TIME Cover Missed and Why the President Complained

Trump’s Gaza Peace Plan: What the TIME Cover Missed

A 4D Connectivity analysis of moving parts, hidden constraints, and branching outcomes.

Image: TIME magazine cover (original version). © TIME. Used for commentary/criticism with attribution.

by J. André Faust (Nov 09, 2025)

TIME’s headline focuses on a striking narrative of success: a ceasefire, a hostage–prisoner exchange, aid corridors into Gaza, and a pathway to withdrawal. That is one slice of the story. The fuller picture contains competing incentives, veto players, and time-sensitive trade-offs that can pull the process in different directions. Under a 4D Connectivity lens, the best we can do is map the pressure points and estimate which branches are more likely under specific conditions.[1]

What the cover story emphasises

  • Ceasefire with a completed hostage–prisoner swap.
  • Increased humanitarian aid into Gaza.
  • Staged withdrawal of Israeli troops, with guarantor states to monitor compliance.
  • Regional summitry to move from battlefield to political process.

Trump’s Complaint and TIME’s Revision

Trump publicly criticised the original cover several days before the issue’s November release date. TIME often posts digital covers online ahead of print runs, so it is likely he saw it through those channels rather than through any special preview. What is unusual is the pivot: after Trump attacked the image as unflattering and “weird,” TIME replaced it with a revised version before publication. Major magazines seldom alter a lead cover that late in production. This shift shows how reaction from a central actor can reshape the media frame in real time, an example of the feedback loop at the heart of the 4D Connectivity model.

Image: TIME magazine cover (revised version). © TIME. Used for commentary/criticism with attribution.

What is under-reported or ambiguous

  • Enforcement mechanics: How guarantors verify and respond to violations, and who has authority to trigger penalties.[2]
  • Gaza governance: The interim structure, rules of succession, security sector design, and the path to elections or other legitimacy-granting mechanisms.
  • Domestic veto players: Israeli coalition dynamics, Palestinian factional competition, and their street-level constituencies.
  • Spoiler risk: Actors with the capacity to sabotage progress to gain leverage or delegitimise rivals.
  • Financing reality: Sequencing of pledges, disbursement controls, and conditionality for reconstruction funds.[3]
  • Justice track: Detainee policy, accountability claims, and how legal processes interact with political bargains.
  • U.S. political constraints: Congressional oversight, budget approvals, and electoral timetables that can reshape timelines.

4D Connectivity: why outcomes branch

Systems evolve as interconnected layers: security, politics, economics, law, and narrative. Each action creates multiple potential reactions, and observers update beliefs in real time. That feedback loop creates branching paths rather than single-track forecasts. The goal is to identify the hinges where small shifts produce outsized effects.

Branch Trigger Short-term effect Longer-run risk Watch item
Compliance consolidate Verified adherence by both sides for 30–60 days Aid scale-up, initial returns, reduced clashes Stall in governance design creates vacuum Guarantor joint verification reports
Partial backslide Localised violations without sanction Stop–go aid, checkpoint frictions Normalisation of low-level violence Delay between incident and guarantor response
Spoiler escalation High-casualty event by a non-signatory actor Public pressure for retaliation Collapse of ceasefire logic Rules for attribution and proportionality
Finance lock-in Front-loaded pledges with escrow safeguards Visible rebuild wins legitimacy Corruption or capture of funds erodes support Independent audits tied to milestones

Practical checkpoints to track

  1. Verification cadence: Are guarantor reports timely, specific, and jointly endorsed.
  2. Rules of engagement: Are incident-response protocols public and consistently applied.
  3. Governance roadmap: Is there a dated sequence for interim administration, security reform, and representation.
  4. Funding mechanics: Are pledges escrowed with transparent release conditions and third-party audits.
  5. Civic signals: Trends in detainee policy, movement permits, media space, and service delivery.

What this means for readers

If the next two months produce verified compliance, transparent governance design, and credible financing, the probability mass shifts toward consolidation. If verification lags, spoilers set the tempo, or domestic politics harden, the process drifts toward partial backslide. Outcomes are not fixed. They are updated by what happens at the hinges.

In complex systems, prediction is not a single number. It is a map of plausible branches that move as incentives and information change.

Editor’s note

This piece responds to TIME’s cover story and related reporting about the Trump administration’s Gaza peace plan. It highlights mechanisms and risks that major coverage tends to compress or omit. As always, new facts can and should update the analysis.


References

  1. [1] TIME cover story on Gaza peace plan. Add URL and date accessed.
  2. [2] Statements or documents from guarantor states outlining compliance mechanisms. Add URLs.
  3. [3] Reporting on reconstruction cost estimates and financing pledges. Add URLs.

About the author

J. André Faust writes The Connected Mind, a systems-level look at how politics, economics, and society interlock. The guiding idea is simple: trace feedback, surface assumptions, and update beliefs as new information arrives.

If you found this useful, share it with someone who follows Middle East policy or complex-systems thinking.


Saturday, November 8, 2025

Beware: Scammers and Fraudsters Are Adapting to Get Your Money

Split scene: elderly woman worried on the left; hooded scammer smiling while using a laptop on the right. Represents how scammers harm vulnerable victims.
 Online scammers and fraudsters don’t care about their victims’ hardships.

By J. André Faust (November 8, 2025)

The Numbers Game of Digital Scams: A Case Study, Psychology Breakdown, and How to Verify Emails

This post examines a live Facebook scam I received, compares it with a legitimate fundraising email about a real multimillion dollar lawsuit, and unpacks how a separate DHL phishing email tries to trick recipients. Along the way, I explain the persuasion mechanics and show exactly how to verify email authenticity using message headers.


Part I — The Facebook “Government Grant” Scam: A Case Study

Transcript highlights (abridged):

  • Scammer: “Have you heard about the DC program… an International Development program by the government due to the pandemic to give financial assistance to everyone… Even I got $150,000… I’ll send you the agent.”
  • Me: “Which government, which country? I base decisions on verifiable data.”
  • Scammer (later): “Federal government… Canada… It’s 100 percent real.”

Why this is a scam

  • Vagueness: no program name, no department, no official link.
  • Over-promising: “everyone” gets $150,000 with no repayment.
  • Scripted escalation: they try to hand you to a fake “agent.”
  • Outdated frame: they invoke “pandemic aid,” which signals a recycled 2020–2022 script.
  • Decorative obfuscation: odd characters like “ۦۦ ۦۦ …” are Arabic combining marks used as visual filler to dodge filters and to look exotic. They add no meaning.

What I did: demanded specifics — country, department, official link. When they finally said “Canada,” I asked for the minister and noted I could verify with federal contacts. The conversation stalled. That is a win.

Psychology of why these scripts work

  • System 1 vs System 2 (Kahneman): scams push fast, emotional System 1 before careful System 2 can engage.
  • ELM (Elaboration Likelihood Model): they target the peripheral route with cues like “government,” big payoff, and friendly tone, avoiding the central route where claims are scrutinised.
  • Cialdini’s principles: authority (“government”), social proof (“my friend got it”), reciprocity (“I’m helping you”), scarcity (“apply soon”), commitment/consistency (get you to reply once), liking (chummy small talk), and unity (“people like us”).
  • Heuristics under stress: financial strain, time pressure, and fatigue increase reliance on shortcuts.

Glossary

  • FOMO: Fear Of Missing Out. A pressure tactic that nudges people to act quickly to avoid “losing” a benefit.
  • Peripheral route: quick persuasion via cues rather than evidence.
  • Central route: persuasion through careful reasoning and proof.

Part II — Legitimate Fundraising vs Scam: How I Evaluated the Broadbent/PressProgress Email

Within the same window of time I received a fundraising email from the Broadbent Institute referencing a lengthy, expensive media-law trial connected to a 2019 Alberta election story. The email routes through ActionNetwork’s infrastructure, shows consistent sender identity, and references an ongoing, public legal matter involving multiple media outlets. This stands in contrast to the Facebook scam’s evasiveness.

Legitimate signals

  • Clear organisational identity (Broadbent Institute, PressProgress), stable web domains, and a consistent sender address.
  • Context that matches public reporting about a multi-month trial and a multimillion dollar claim.
  • Routine fundraising framing: transparency about costs, a donation ask, and unsubscribe links.

Why scams harm legitimate fundraising

  • They saturate people with fake appeals, creating “compassion fatigue.”
  • They erode trust in all asks, so real causes must overcome higher skepticism.
  • They mimic legitimate language, forcing genuine organisations to prove more and more.

Part III — DHL Phishing Example

I also received a “DHL EXPRESS” email, in mixed Japanese and English, urging me to click a link to correct my address and phone number. This is classic delivery-problem phishing.

Plain-English translation of the Japanese body (abridged):

“Were you not at home at the time of delivery?
Dear Customer, an international item from the United States is scheduled for delivery, but we could not deliver due to errors in the address and phone number. Please complete the delivery information using the link below and we will arrange redelivery within 1–2 business days. You can choose no-signature contactless delivery or pickup at a nearby service point. Click here.”

It then shows a fake tracking number and a button to “complete delivery info.”

Red flags

  • Sender domain is not owned by DHL.
  • Urgent correction request plus a link to a data-harvesting site.
  • Language switching and generic “Dear Customer.”

Part IV — How to Verify Email Authenticity with Headers

Email display names and apparent “From” addresses can be spoofed. What matters is the header trail and authentication results.

What to look for in headers

  • Return-Path / Envelope-From: the true sending identity for bounces.
  • Received lines: the path the message took, from the first server to your provider. Look for reputable infrastructure.
  • SPF: did the sending IP have permission to send for the domain.
  • DKIM: a cryptographic signature by the sender’s domain.
  • DMARC: domain’s policy that ties SPF/DKIM to the visible “From.”

Note: Good providers filter many spoofed messages using SPF/DKIM/DMARC, but filtering cannot be perfect. You should still verify suspicious messages manually.

How to open headers in Outlook desktop (two ways)

  1. Classic method: double-click the email to open in its own window → FileProperties → copy from the Internet headers box.
  2. Message Options shortcut: double-click the email → in the ribbon’s Tags group, click the tiny launcher arrow at the corner → headers appear in Properties.

Once opened, scan the Received chain top to bottom. For a legitimate campaign, you will usually see a known bulk sender or the organisation’s own infrastructure. For phishing, you often see mismatched domains, odd servers, or no valid authentication.

Quick test you can do

  • Hover but do not click links. Does the actual URL match the brand’s domain?
  • Check if the sender’s domain passes SPF and DKIM in the headers.
  • If in doubt, go directly to the organisation’s website and navigate to their donate or account page yourself. Never use the email link.

Part V — Practical Checklist: Spotting Manipulation

  • Specifics or nothing: program name, department, official URL.
  • No fees for money: never pay “delivery,” “clearance,” or “verification” fees to receive funds.
  • Timeline sense: does the story fit the current moment, or does it smell like a pandemic-era template.
  • Route yourself: for legit appeals, type the known site in your browser. Do not click the email button.
  • Slow the pace: taking time forces your System 2 to engage.

Conclusion

Scammers run a numbers game that counts on speed, stress, and vague authority. Legitimate organisations expect scrutiny and can point you to verifiable sources. The simplest defence is a habit: ask for specifics, read the headers, and never let urgency make your decision.


About the author

J. André Faust explores the structural entanglements of politics, economics, and society. His work follows a layered-systems approach that traces feedback loops and updates beliefs in light of new evidence. He writes and produces under the banner The Connected Mind.


Thursday, November 6, 2025

What Is Zionism? Everything You Wanted to Know — Clearly Explained



by J. André Faust (Nov 6, 2025)

Many people use the term loosely, without really understanding the history of Zionism. In many cases those employing the term do so purely in a derogatory context. In this essay I aim to shed light on Zionism, showing that it comes in many flavours, and exploring how it connects to the Palestinian story.

Summary: Zionism began in the late nineteenth century as a Jewish nationalist movement seeking a secure homeland in the historic Land of Israel. The creation of Israel in 1948 fulfilled that goal for Jews, but it coincided with the mass displacement of Palestinians (the Nakba). This post explains key currents within Zionism, outlines mechanisms through which displacement occurred, examines how the Holocaust accelerated support for Zionism, and assesses whether Benjamin Netanyahu is a Zionist or chiefly influenced by Zionism.

What Is the Nakba? The term Nakba (Arabic: النكبة, “the catastrophe”) refers to the mass displacement of an estimated 700,000 Palestinians during the 1947–49 Arab–Israeli War that accompanied the creation of the State of Israel. It includes the loss of homes and land, the destruction or depopulation of hundreds of villages, and the creation of a long-term refugee crisis that remains unresolved. The Nakba is commemorated annually on 15 May and forms a central part of Palestinian historical memory and identity21.


What Is Zionism?

Definition. Zionism is the Jewish nationalist movement that sought, and now supports, a Jewish state in the ancestral homeland. The term derives from “Zion”, a biblical name for Jerusalem and the Land of Israel1.

Why It Arose. In the late 1800s, European antisemitism and the wider wave of national movements led figures such as Theodor Herzl to organise for a recognised Jewish homeland, combining diplomacy, settlement, and cultural revival1, 2.

Key Strands of Zionism

  • Political Zionism: diplomatic recognition and legal guarantees for a Jewish state1.
  • Labour / Practical Zionism: building “facts on the ground” through immigration, agriculture, and the kibbutz movement2, 3.
  • Revisionist Zionism: nationalist, security-first doctrine influencing the modern Israeli right3.
  • Religious Zionism: national return framed as biblical fulfilment4.
  • Cultural Zionism: revival of Hebrew language and Jewish culture5.

How the Holocaust Shaped Modern Zionism

Zionism did not arise from the Holocaust. It began in the late nineteenth century, long before the rise of Nazism. However, the Holocaust fundamentally transformed the global and Jewish context in which Zionism operated, accelerating political support for a Jewish homeland2.

Why the Holocaust Accelerated Support for Zionism

  1. Statelessness became a life-and-death issue. Without a sovereign state, Jews were left unprotected and unable to flee genocide2.
  2. Western countries refused Jewish refugees. Events such as the turning away of the MS St. Louis demonstrated the dangers of statelessness11.
  3. Displaced survivors needed resettlement. Hundreds of thousands lived in DP camps before migrating to Palestine or elsewhere12, 16.
  4. Global sympathy shifted. Post-Holocaust sentiment influenced support for the 1947 UN Partition Plan13, 14, 15.

Conclusion. The Holocaust did not create Zionism, but it reshaped its urgency and global reception, contributing to the diplomatic environment that enabled the creation of Israel in 1948.


How Zionism Connects to Palestinian Displacement

1947–49 War and the Nakba. The UN Partition Plan triggered war, during which over 700,000 Palestinians were displaced and more than 400 villages were depopulated or destroyed. Scholars debate causes and intent, but the scale of displacement is well documented6, 19, 20.

  • Military operations and expulsions (with contested debate over intent).
  • Siege and psychological warfare contributing to mass flight.
  • Post-war property laws preventing return.

After 1967. Israel’s capture of the West Bank, Gaza, and East Jerusalem introduced a long-term military occupation and an expanding settlement enterprise that fragmented Palestinian land and deepened displacement pressures7, 10, 18.


Is Benjamin Netanyahu a Zionist or Influenced by Zionism?

Political lineage. Likud is descended from Revisionist Zionism, founded by Ze’ev Jabotinsky. Netanyahu’s father, Benzion Netanyahu, was a major figure in that tradition and deeply influenced his son’s worldview8.

Policy direction. Netanyahu has repeatedly opposed a Palestinian state and expanded settlement growth, reinforcing unilateral security control over the West Bank9, 10, 17.

Conclusion. Netanyahu is both a Zionist and a political heir to Revisionist Zionism. His policies reflect a maximalist security approach that prioritises Jewish sovereignty between the river and the sea.


Key Takeaways

  • Zionism is diverse — political, cultural, labour, religious, and revisionist.
  • The Holocaust accelerated the urgency and global support for Zionism.
  • The Nakba produced a lasting Palestinian refugee crisis.
  • Netanyahu’s ideology is rooted in Revisionist Zionism.

References

  1. Encyclopaedia Britannica. (2025). Zionism. https://www.britannica.com/topic/Zionism
  2. University of Michigan, Centre for Middle Eastern and North African Studies. (n.d.). Zionism unit: Israel and Palestine — Section 1. https://lsa.umich.edu/.../Section1_Zionism.pdf
  3. Jewish Virtual Library. (n.d.). Revisionist Zionism. https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/revisionist-zionism
  4. Wikipedia contributors. (2025). Types of Zionism. In Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Types_of_Zionism
  5. Temple Emanu-El. (n.d.). Types of Zionism. https://images.shulcloud.com/.../TypesofZionism.pdf
  6. Encyclopaedia Britannica. (2024). 1948 Arab–Israeli War. https://www.britannica.com/event/1948-Arab-Israeli-War
  7. Reuters. (2024, July 19). UN’s top court says Israel’s occupation and settlements are illegal. https://www.reuters.com/.../2024-07-19/
  8. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. (2012). The enduring influence of Benjamin Netanyahu’s father. https://carnegieendowment.org/.../benjamin-netanyahus-father
  9. Time Magazine. (2015, March 17). Netanyahu vows no Palestinian state while he is prime minister. https://time.com/3746427/
  10. Associated Press. (2025, February 4). Jewish settler population in the West Bank keeps rising. https://apnews.com/.../f152a95
  11. United States Holocaust Memorial Museum. (2024). Voyage of the St. Louis. https://encyclopedia.ushmm.org/.../voyage-of-the-st-louis
  12. United States Holocaust Memorial Museum. (n.d.). Displaced persons. https://encyclopedia.ushmm.org/.../displaced-persons
  13. United Nations. (1947). Resolution 181 (II): Future government of Palestine. https://www.un.org/unispal/.../auto-insert-185393
  14. United Nations Digital Library. (1948). Future government of Palestine: Resolutions adopted during the 2nd session. https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/667161
  15. United Nations. (n.d.). A/RES/181(II). https://docs.un.org/a/res/181(ii)
  16. United States Holocaust Memorial Museum. (n.d.). The aftermath of the Holocaust. https://encyclopedia.ushmm.org/.../aftermath
  17. Associated Press. (2023). Settler population in West Bank surpasses 500,000. https://apnews.com/.../e566
  18. Reuters. (2025, March 18). Israel is ramping up annexation of the West Bank, UN rights chief says. https://www.reuters.com/.../2025-03-18/
  19. Pappé, I. (2006). The ethnic cleansing of Palestine. Oneworld Publications.
  20. Khalidi, W. (1992). All that remains: The Palestinian villages occupied and depopulated by Israel in 1948. Institute for Palestine Studies.
  21. Encyclopaedia Britannica. (2024). Nakba. https://www.britannica.com/event/Nakba

About the Author

J. André Faust writes The Connected Mind, exploring how politics, economics, and society interlock. The guiding idea is to trace feedback, surface assumptions, and revise beliefs as evidence changes.

Monday, November 3, 2025

The Architecture of Persuasion

by J. André Faust (Nov 03, 2025)

The Architecture of Persuasion

Times have changed over the last 100 years. There was a time when the news we received was relatively accurate; however, there was still some interpretation that would be needed. Back in the early days of journalism, reporters made an honest attempt to provide the best testimonies available within the limits of their era. That is not to say that there wasn’t any propaganda operating alongside journalistic ethics, but the origin of propaganda then came primarily from the state 1.

So why is it difficult in the contemporary world to determine what the probabilistic truths are when we are given information about local and international events? As far as mainstream journals go, they are answerable to their shareholders and advertisers, which may influence how they frame a story 2.

Framing

Framing is a powerful tool of persuasion that warrants further examination. It is the process of selecting certain aspects of reality and presenting them in a way that promotes a particular interpretation, evaluation, or course of action 3. In other words, to frame is to structure information so that the audience’s attention, emotions, and understanding are guided toward one meaning while other interpretations are minimised or excluded.

Example of Framing

  • Neutral report: “Protesters gathered outside the embassy today.”
  • Framed report A: “Pro-Palestinian activists clashed with police outside the embassy.”
  • Framed report B: “Citizens demanding an end to civilian deaths rallied peacefully outside the embassy.”

Each uses the same event but activates different schemas or heuristics — those mental shortcuts that shape how audiences interpret meaning — consistent with the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) developed by Richard E. Petty and John T. Cacioppo in the early 1980s 4. Framing exploits the peripheral processing route, which, according to the ELM, leads to quick decisions based on emotions, unlike its counterpart, the central processing route, where critical thinking lies.

There is a philosophical implication: how do we gain knowledge? Some philosophers believe that knowledge is either gained by experience or through testimonial knowledge 5, so framing would fall into the latter category — testimonial rather than experiential.


Institutions of Persuasion

Over the decades, this art of narrative construction has evolved into a professional and academic discipline. A network of institutions now studies, teaches, and applies the principles of persuasion under the banners of “communications,” “strategic influence,” or “information management.” Some of these institutions emerged from journalism and media studies; others grew out of military or policy research. Together, they shape how much of the world understands truth, trust, and authority 6.

As journalism matured, persuasion itself became formalised. What began as intuition and state-sponsored propaganda evolved into an organised field of study. From the early experiments of Edward Bernays, who merged psychology with public relations 7, to the sociological insights of Erving Goffman 8 and the communication theories that followed, the techniques of influence were refined, codified, and taught. Today, entire schools and research centres are devoted to understanding and operationalising these dynamics — not only to inform, but to guide public opinion, manage perception, and sustain ideological coherence across societies.

Meta-Persuasion and the Social Media Arena

The rise of social media has redefined how persuasion operates. Platforms such as Facebook, X, Instagram, and TikTok have become open stages where users act as their own editors, publishers, and propagandists. Unlike the institutional media of the past, these digital ecosystems reward emotion over evidence 9. Algorithms are designed to amplify engagement, not accuracy, meaning that content which provokes anger, fear, or amusement travels farther than content that merely informs.

Within this environment, persuasion has become meta-persuasive — it no longer requires structured arguments or supporting data. Instead, it relies on memes, short captions, and emotionally charged imagery that compress complex issues into simple moral binaries. A single graphic or phrase can replace pages of analysis, inviting instant agreement or outrage. This process bypasses the central route of critical thought described in the ELM and activates the peripheral route — reaction without reflection.

Most users are not conscious propagandists. They share, repost, and comment out of genuine emotion — solidarity, humour, anger, or fear. Yet in doing so, they participate in a collective persuasion network where meaning is shaped by repetition and visual shorthand rather than reasoning. The result is a vast feedback system of unverified testimony that feels authentic precisely because it is personal.

In this sense, the social-media landscape functions as a crowdsourced extension of the institutions of persuasion. It decentralises influence, allowing individuals to become both consumers and producers of spin — each meme a micro-frame, each reaction an act of narrative reinforcement 10.


From Institutions to Personalities

If institutions built the architecture of persuasion, personalities learned to live inside it. In the twenty-first century, the tools of influence once reserved for governments, broadcasters, and think tanks have migrated into the hands of individual communicators. Charismatic figures now command audiences larger than national networks, using the same psychological principles — framing, emotional priming, repetition, and identity appeal — that were once the domain of organised propaganda.

Through platforms like YouTube, X, and alternative media outlets, persuasion has become personal: the message and the messenger are one. Figures such as Alex Jones in the United States or Ezra Levant in Canada exemplify this transformation. They blur the boundary between journalism and performance, trading institutional credibility for emotional authenticity and ideological loyalty. In this new environment, persuasion is no longer engineered solely in boardrooms and research centres; it is streamed live, monetised, and endlessly amplified.

Personality-Driven Persuasion: Alex Jones and Ezra Levant

Alex Jones (United States)
Jones rose to prominence through his platform Infowars, cultivating an audience through fear-based persuasion and apocalyptic rhetoric 11. His strategy relies on emotional saturation — overwhelming the audience with threat narratives, claims of hidden plots, and appeals to personal vigilance. By framing himself as the lone guardian of suppressed truth, he establishes cognitive closure: complex global events become moral dramas of good versus evil. The power of Jones’s persuasion lies not in evidence but in certainty. Within his ecosystem, doubt itself becomes proof of conspiracy.

Ezra Levant (Canada)
Levant’s Rebel News employs similar rhetorical techniques under a different national tone. Where Jones trades in conspiracy, Levant trades in indignation. His method is outrage framing: selecting issues that trigger moral or patriotic anger and presenting them as evidence of cultural betrayal 12. The emotional register is nationalism rather than apocalypse, but the mechanism is the same — mobilising identity against authority. Levant’s success demonstrates how American-style populist rhetoric has adapted to Canadian sensibilities, turning media commentary into a vehicle for ideological solidarity.

The Common Mechanism. Both men exemplify persuasion through performative authenticity. By appearing unscripted, passionate, and persecuted, they generate trust through emotion rather than verification. Their influence shows how easily testimonial knowledge — the kind once entrusted to professional journalists — can be reshaped into belief systems sustained by repetition, loyalty, and shared grievance. In this sense, Jones and Levant are not outliers but products of the environment that institutions of persuasion helped to build: a world where truth competes for attention, and attention defines reality.


The Uncertainty of Testimonial Truth

What began as the craft of journalism and evolved into a science of persuasion has now become an open contest of narratives. In this environment, knowledge itself becomes probabilistic: we no longer weigh facts alone, but the credibility of the source, the emotional resonance of the presentation, and the social validation that follows. Testimonial knowledge — once grounded in trust between journalist and public — has fragmented into thousands of competing testimonies, each claiming authenticity 13. The algorithms that drive digital media further distort this process, privileging intensity over evidence and emotion over coherence.

Within such a system, certainty becomes a luxury. Every story is framed, every frame is contested, and even the act of seeking truth is mediated through institutions and personalities with vested perspectives. What remains to the careful observer is not the pursuit of absolute truth but the estimation of probability — what version of events seems most consistent with the evidence and least dependent on emotional manipulation.

Israel and Palestine: The Collision of Narratives

Few conflicts reveal the mechanics of modern persuasion more clearly than Israel and Palestine. Each side presents its own version of reality: Hamas issues allegations of Israeli aggression; Israel counters with denials or reciprocal accusations. International outlets amplify or suppress details depending on editorial stance, national alignment, or audience expectation. Western networks often frame the conflict through the lens of security and terrorism, while Arab and Global South media frame it through occupation and resistance 14. The same event — an airstrike, a ceasefire, a protest — can emerge as two entirely different stories depending on who tells it and to whom.

In this collision of narratives, the challenge is no longer access to information, but navigating the architectures of persuasion that determine how information becomes belief.


Conclusion: The Evolution of Influence

The study of persuasion has never been static. From Bernays’ early manipulation of symbols and desire, to the institutional refinement of messaging, to the algorithmic curation of attention, the methods have evolved while the goal has remained largely unchanged: to shape behaviour through perception 15. Whether the purpose is to sell a product, promote a policy, or influence belief, persuasion has always been less about helping people make better decisions than about ensuring they conform to the decisions already made for them.

Today, that process continues with increasing sophistication. Research into the psychology of influence, data analytics, and emotional priming is ongoing — not at the margins, but at the core of political, corporate, and technological systems. Artificial intelligence has become the newest and most powerful instrument in this continuum. It analyses sentiment, predicts behaviour, and generates tailored content that speaks directly to the emotional and cognitive biases of individuals. Where earlier institutions sought to persuade the public as a collective, AI allows persuasion to operate at the level of the person — one algorithmic nudge at a time 16.

In this environment, the architecture of persuasion is self-sustaining. It no longer needs a single propagandist or a central authority; the system itself learns what works and adapts. The result is a world where influence is ambient — woven into the interfaces we use, the stories we read, and the choices we think are our own.

The task for the thoughtful observer, then, is not to reject persuasion but to recognise it: to see how knowledge is shaped, how certainty is manufactured, and how consent is engineered. Understanding this does not free us entirely from influence, but it allows us to navigate it consciously, with eyes open to the mechanisms that turn communication into control.

About the author

J. André Faust explores the structural entanglements of politics, economics, and society. His work on The Connected Mind uses a layered-systems approach to trace feedback loops across institutions, media, and culture — always with the goal of revising beliefs in light of better evidence.

References

  1. Bernays, E. (1928). Propaganda. Liveright Publishing.
  2. McChesney, R. W. (2013). Digital Disconnect: How Capitalism Is Turning the Internet Against Democracy. The New Press.
  3. Entman, R. M. (1993). “Framing: Toward Clarification of a Fractured Paradigm.” Journal of Communication, 43(4), 51–58.
  4. Petty, R. E., & Cacioppo, J. T. (1986). Communication and Persuasion: Central and Peripheral Routes to Attitude Change. Springer-Verlag.
  5. Coady, C. A. J. (1992). Testimony: A Philosophical Study. Oxford University Press. (See also Reid, T. (1764). An Inquiry into the Human Mind.)
  6. Shorenstein Center on Media, Politics and Public Policy (Harvard University). Research archives. Accessed 2025.
  7. Bernays, E. (1947). “The Engineering of Consent.” Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 250(1), 113–120.
  8. Goffman, E. (1974). Frame Analysis: An Essay on the Organization of Experience. Harvard University Press.
  9. Vosoughi, S., Roy, D., & Aral, S. (2018). “The Spread of True and False News Online.” Science, 359(6380), 1146–1151.
  10. NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence. (2024). Annual Report on Information Operations. Riga.
  11. LaFrance, A. (2019). “The Prophet of Paranoia.” The Atlantic.
  12. Taras, D. (2020). “Rebel News and the Politics of Outrage.” Canadian Journal of Media Studies.
  13. Coady, C. A. J. (1992). Testimony: A Philosophical Study. Oxford University Press.
  14. BBC Monitoring. (2024). “Media Coverage Comparative Analysis: Israel–Gaza Conflict.”
  15. O’Shaughnessy, N. J. (2017). Marketing the Third Reich: Persuasion and Propaganda in Nazi Germany. Routledge.
  16. Tufekci, Z. (2022). “Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Persuasion.” MIT Technology Review.

Wednesday, October 29, 2025

The Illusion of a Ceasefire: Reframing Control Through Managed Conflict

Photorealistic symbolic image of a fragile truce: two hands in a cautious handshake beneath cracked glass, with the Gaza cityscape and smoke in the background — symbolising the illusion of stability amid conflict.

The Illusion of Peace

by J. André Faust (October 29, 2025)

1. The ceasefire that never was

Officials continue to describe events as a ceasefire, yet air strikes, raids and retaliations have persisted. Recent coverage by BBC News notes fresh Israeli strikes and competing claims of violations (BBC News, 29 Oct 2025). The Toronto Star / Associated Press characterises the truce as fragile, brokered by the United States, and repeatedly tested by flare-ups (Toronto Star / AP, 29 Oct 2025).

2. Language as control

Framing shapes reality for audiences. JD Vance stated that the ceasefire is holding, while allowing for “little skirmishes,” which reframes ongoing violence as incidental (BBC live coverage, 29 Oct 2025). Turkey’s foreign ministry condemned Israeli strikes as open violations of the agreement, demonstrating how identical events are cast in opposite moral terms (Turkey MFA statement, 29 Oct 2025).

3. Controlled chaos as strategy

The United States signals that Israel may strike when attacked, while insisting the broader deal must hold (Toronto Star / AP, 29 Oct 2025). This produces bounded instability, where limited violence is permitted, yet narrative control is maintained. In practice this resembles a managed-conflict model rather than peace.

4. Proxies and plausible deniability

Reports describe rival armed groups in Gaza, sometimes referred to as “Popular Forces,” operating alongside or against Hamas (BBC reporting, 29 Oct 2025). Whether directly armed, tolerated, or simply exploited, such actors create ambiguity that can justify renewed strikes and shift blame. ICRC also criticised a staged recovery of remains as unacceptable, underscoring the information fog that aids deniability (ICRC statement, 29 Oct 2025).

5. The United States as the stabilising illusion

Senior US officials, including the vice-president and the secretary of state, continue high-visibility visits and statements to signal oversight, even as strikes resume and pause. This projects assurance without necessarily imposing accountability (Toronto Star / AP, 29 Oct 2025). The observer’s presence alters outcomes, a political analogue of measurement in physics.

6. Phase one stasis

Coverage indicates the agreement remains stuck in its initial exchange phase, with disputes over the handling of deceased hostages, and continued allegations of violations (Toronto Star / AP, 29 Oct 2025; BBC live, 29 Oct 2025). Activity persists, yet progress stalls, which resembles dynamic stasis rather than transition.

7. The systems view: illusion as policy

In a layered-systems perspective, ceasefire and conflict lie on the same operational curve. Proxies act as disturbance nodes, language acts as a selector, and observation by powerful states functions as a stabiliser. The result is a policy of controlled uncertainty. When instability is instrumentally useful, ceasefire becomes theatre.

8. Applying the 4D Connectivity Model

Within the 4D Connectivity Model, each vertex represents a point of convergence across four dimensions—three spatial and one temporal. Every moment in time, like every position in space, contains an infinite potential field of outcomes. Each decision, observation, or reaction selects one trajectory from that field, momentarily collapsing probability into experience.

Because every vertex in both time and space can unfold into countless possibilities, absolute predictability is impossible. Systems that appear stable are merely temporary alignments within an ever-changing probability matrix. The Israel–Gaza situation illustrates this vividly: each airstrike, statement, or negotiation does not simply change the present — it reshapes the range of all possible futures that follow.

In this framework, time is not a line but a dynamic landscape of branching possibilities. What we call “control” or “peace” exists only as a transient pattern, constantly rewritten by new events and observations. The illusion of a permanent ceasefire collapses under this model, revealing a deeper reality: that every moment generates new dimensions of uncertainty.

About the author

J.  André Faust examines the structural entanglements of politics, economics and society. He explores how single moments, from a lone act of violence to a policy choice, can unfold into decades of social and cultural change.

His approach treats reality like a layered 3D model. Systems overlap, interact and sometimes obscure one another. Forecasts are provisional, hidden layers and feedback loops are often still at work.

Guiding idea: understand connections, trace feedback and revise beliefs as new layers come into view.

References & Sources

  1. BBC News (29 Oct 2025). Israel strikes Gaza after accusing Hamas of ceasefire violations. Live updates.
  2. Toronto Star / Associated Press (29 Oct 2025). US determined to prevent the collapse of the Gaza ceasefire after overnight airstrikes.
  3. International Committee of the Red Cross (29 Oct 2025). Statement on alleged staged recovery of hostage remains.
  4. Turkey Ministry of Foreign Affairs (29 Oct 2025). Statement on Israeli strikes and ceasefire commitments.
  5. Al Jazeera (29 Sep 2025). Full text of Trump’s 20-point plan to end the Gaza war.