Trump’s Gaza Peace Plan: What the TIME Cover Missed and Why the President Complained

Trump’s Gaza Peace Plan: What the TIME Cover Missed

A 4D Connectivity analysis of moving parts, hidden constraints, and branching outcomes.

Image: TIME magazine cover (original version). © TIME. Used for commentary/criticism with attribution.

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by J. André Faust (Nov 09, 2025)

TIME’s headline focuses on a striking narrative of success: a ceasefire, a hostage–prisoner exchange, aid corridors into Gaza, and a pathway to withdrawal. That is one slice of the story. The fuller picture contains competing incentives, veto players, and time-sensitive trade-offs that can pull the process in different directions. Under a 4D Connectivity lens, the best we can do is map the pressure points and estimate which branches are more likely under specific conditions.^[1]

What the cover story emphasises

• Ceasefire with a completed hostage–prisoner swap.
• Increased humanitarian aid into Gaza.
• Staged withdrawal of Israeli troops, with guarantor states to monitor compliance.
• Regional summitry to move from battlefield to political process.

Trump’s Complaint and TIME’s Revision

Trump publicly criticised the original cover several days before the issue’s November release date. TIME often posts digital covers online ahead of print runs, so it is likely he saw it through those channels rather than through any special preview. What is unusual is the pivot: after Trump attacked the image as unflattering and “weird,” TIME replaced it with a revised version before publication. Major magazines seldom alter a lead cover that late in production. This shift shows how reaction from a central actor can reshape the media frame in real time, an example of the feedback loop at the heart of the 4D Connectivity model.

Image: TIME magazine cover (revised version). © TIME. Used for commentary/criticism with attribution.

What is under-reported or ambiguous

• Enforcement mechanics: How guarantors verify and respond to violations, and who has authority to trigger penalties.^[2]
• Gaza governance: The interim structure, rules of succession, security sector design, and the path to elections or other legitimacy-granting mechanisms.
• Domestic veto players: Israeli coalition dynamics, Palestinian factional competition, and their street-level constituencies.
• Spoiler risk: Actors with the capacity to sabotage progress to gain leverage or delegitimise rivals.
• Financing reality: Sequencing of pledges, disbursement controls, and conditionality for reconstruction funds.^[3]
• Justice track: Detainee policy, accountability claims, and how legal processes interact with political bargains.
• U.S. political constraints: Congressional oversight, budget approvals, and electoral timetables that can reshape timelines.

4D Connectivity: why outcomes branch

Systems evolve as interconnected layers: security, politics, economics, law, and narrative. Each action creates multiple potential reactions, and observers update beliefs in real time. That feedback loop creates branching paths rather than single-track forecasts. The goal is to identify the hinges where small shifts produce outsized effects.

Branch	Trigger	Short-term effect	Longer-run risk	Watch item
Compliance consolidate	Verified adherence by both sides for 30–60 days	Aid scale-up, initial returns, reduced clashes	Stall in governance design creates vacuum	Guarantor joint verification reports
Partial backslide	Localised violations without sanction	Stop–go aid, checkpoint frictions	Normalisation of low-level violence	Delay between incident and guarantor response
Spoiler escalation	High-casualty event by a non-signatory actor	Public pressure for retaliation	Collapse of ceasefire logic	Rules for attribution and proportionality
Finance lock-in	Front-loaded pledges with escrow safeguards	Visible rebuild wins legitimacy	Corruption or capture of funds erodes support	Independent audits tied to milestones

Practical checkpoints to track

1. Verification cadence: Are guarantor reports timely, specific, and jointly endorsed.
2. Rules of engagement: Are incident-response protocols public and consistently applied.
3. Governance roadmap: Is there a dated sequence for interim administration, security reform, and representation.
4. Funding mechanics: Are pledges escrowed with transparent release conditions and third-party audits.
5. Civic signals: Trends in detainee policy, movement permits, media space, and service delivery.

What this means for readers

If the next two months produce verified compliance, transparent governance design, and credible financing, the probability mass shifts toward consolidation. If verification lags, spoilers set the tempo, or domestic politics harden, the process drifts toward partial backslide. Outcomes are not fixed. They are updated by what happens at the hinges.

In complex systems, prediction is not a single number. It is a map of plausible branches that move as incentives and information change.

Editor’s note

This piece responds to TIME’s cover story and related reporting about the Trump administration’s Gaza peace plan. It highlights mechanisms and risks that major coverage tends to compress or omit. As always, new facts can and should update the analysis.

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References

1. [1] TIME cover story on Gaza peace plan. Add URL and date accessed.
2. [2] Statements or documents from guarantor states outlining compliance mechanisms. Add URLs.
3. [3] Reporting on reconstruction cost estimates and financing pledges. Add URLs.

About the author

J. André Faust writes The Connected Mind, a systems-level look at how politics, economics, and society interlock. The guiding idea is simple: trace feedback, surface assumptions, and update beliefs as new information arrives.

If you found this useful, share it with someone who follows Middle East policy or complex-systems thinking.

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Beware: Scammers and Fraudsters Are Adapting to Get Your Money

 Online scammers and fraudsters don’t care about their victims’ hardships.

By J. André Faust (November 8, 2025)

The Numbers Game of Digital Scams: A Case Study, Psychology Breakdown, and How to Verify Emails

This post examines a live Facebook scam I received, compares it with a legitimate fundraising email about a real multimillion dollar lawsuit, and unpacks how a separate DHL phishing email tries to trick recipients. Along the way, I explain the persuasion mechanics and show exactly how to verify email authenticity using message headers.

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Part I — The Facebook “Government Grant” Scam: A Case Study

Transcript highlights (abridged):

• Scammer: “Have you heard about the DC program… an International Development program by the government due to the pandemic to give financial assistance to everyone… Even I got $150,000… I’ll send you the agent.”
• Me: “Which government, which country? I base decisions on verifiable data.”
• Scammer (later): “Federal government… Canada… It’s 100 percent real.”

Why this is a scam

• Vagueness: no program name, no department, no official link.
• Over-promising: “everyone” gets $150,000 with no repayment.
• Scripted escalation: they try to hand you to a fake “agent.”
• Outdated frame: they invoke “pandemic aid,” which signals a recycled 2020–2022 script.
• Decorative obfuscation: odd characters like “ۦۦ ۦۦ …” are Arabic combining marks used as visual filler to dodge filters and to look exotic. They add no meaning.

What I did: demanded specifics — country, department, official link. When they finally said “Canada,” I asked for the minister and noted I could verify with federal contacts. The conversation stalled. That is a win.

Psychology of why these scripts work

• System 1 vs System 2 (Kahneman): scams push fast, emotional System 1 before careful System 2 can engage.
• ELM (Elaboration Likelihood Model): they target the peripheral route with cues like “government,” big payoff, and friendly tone, avoiding the central route where claims are scrutinised.
• Cialdini’s principles: authority (“government”), social proof (“my friend got it”), reciprocity (“I’m helping you”), scarcity (“apply soon”), commitment/consistency (get you to reply once), liking (chummy small talk), and unity (“people like us”).
• Heuristics under stress: financial strain, time pressure, and fatigue increase reliance on shortcuts.

Glossary

• FOMO: Fear Of Missing Out. A pressure tactic that nudges people to act quickly to avoid “losing” a benefit.
• Peripheral route: quick persuasion via cues rather than evidence.
• Central route: persuasion through careful reasoning and proof.

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Part II — Legitimate Fundraising vs Scam: How I Evaluated the Broadbent/PressProgress Email

Within the same window of time I received a fundraising email from the Broadbent Institute referencing a lengthy, expensive media-law trial connected to a 2019 Alberta election story. The email routes through ActionNetwork’s infrastructure, shows consistent sender identity, and references an ongoing, public legal matter involving multiple media outlets. This stands in contrast to the Facebook scam’s evasiveness.

Legitimate signals

• Clear organisational identity (Broadbent Institute, PressProgress), stable web domains, and a consistent sender address.
• Context that matches public reporting about a multi-month trial and a multimillion dollar claim.
• Routine fundraising framing: transparency about costs, a donation ask, and unsubscribe links.

Why scams harm legitimate fundraising

• They saturate people with fake appeals, creating “compassion fatigue.”
• They erode trust in all asks, so real causes must overcome higher skepticism.
• They mimic legitimate language, forcing genuine organisations to prove more and more.

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Part III — DHL Phishing Example

I also received a “DHL EXPRESS” email, in mixed Japanese and English, urging me to click a link to correct my address and phone number. This is classic delivery-problem phishing.

Plain-English translation of the Japanese body (abridged):

“Were you not at home at the time of delivery?
Dear Customer, an international item from the United States is scheduled for delivery, but we could not deliver due to errors in the address and phone number. Please complete the delivery information using the link below and we will arrange redelivery within 1–2 business days. You can choose no-signature contactless delivery or pickup at a nearby service point. Click here.”

It then shows a fake tracking number and a button to “complete delivery info.”

Red flags

• Sender domain is not owned by DHL.
• Urgent correction request plus a link to a data-harvesting site.
• Language switching and generic “Dear Customer.”

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Part IV — How to Verify Email Authenticity with Headers

Email display names and apparent “From” addresses can be spoofed. What matters is the header trail and authentication results.

What to look for in headers

• Return-Path / Envelope-From: the true sending identity for bounces.
• Received lines: the path the message took, from the first server to your provider. Look for reputable infrastructure.
• SPF: did the sending IP have permission to send for the domain.
• DKIM: a cryptographic signature by the sender’s domain.
• DMARC: domain’s policy that ties SPF/DKIM to the visible “From.”

Note: Good providers filter many spoofed messages using SPF/DKIM/DMARC, but filtering cannot be perfect. You should still verify suspicious messages manually.

How to open headers in Outlook desktop (two ways)

1. Classic method: double-click the email to open in its own window → File → Properties → copy from the Internet headers box.
2. Message Options shortcut: double-click the email → in the ribbon’s Tags group, click the tiny launcher arrow at the corner → headers appear in Properties.

Once opened, scan the Received chain top to bottom. For a legitimate campaign, you will usually see a known bulk sender or the organisation’s own infrastructure. For phishing, you often see mismatched domains, odd servers, or no valid authentication.

Quick test you can do

• Hover but do not click links. Does the actual URL match the brand’s domain?
• Check if the sender’s domain passes SPF and DKIM in the headers.
• If in doubt, go directly to the organisation’s website and navigate to their donate or account page yourself. Never use the email link.

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Part V — Practical Checklist: Spotting Manipulation

• Specifics or nothing: program name, department, official URL.
• No fees for money: never pay “delivery,” “clearance,” or “verification” fees to receive funds.
• Timeline sense: does the story fit the current moment, or does it smell like a pandemic-era template.
• Route yourself: for legit appeals, type the known site in your browser. Do not click the email button.
• Slow the pace: taking time forces your System 2 to engage.

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Conclusion

Scammers run a numbers game that counts on speed, stress, and vague authority. Legitimate organisations expect scrutiny and can point you to verifiable sources. The simplest defence is a habit: ask for specifics, read the headers, and never let urgency make your decision.

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About the author

J. André Faust explores the structural entanglements of politics, economics, and society. His work follows a layered-systems approach that traces feedback loops and updates beliefs in light of new evidence. He writes and produces under the banner The Connected Mind.

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What Is Zionism? Everything You Wanted to Know — Clearly Explained

by J. André Faust (Nov 6, 2025)

Many people use the term loosely, without really understanding the history of Zionism. In many cases those employing the term do so purely in a derogatory context. In this essay I aim to shed light on Zionism, showing that it comes in many flavours, and exploring how it connects to the Palestinian story.

Summary: Zionism began in the late nineteenth century as a Jewish nationalist movement seeking a secure homeland in the historic Land of Israel. The creation of Israel in 1948 fulfilled that goal for Jews, but it coincided with the mass displacement of Palestinians (the Nakba). This post explains key currents within Zionism, outlines mechanisms through which displacement occurred, examines how the Holocaust accelerated support for Zionism, and assesses whether Benjamin Netanyahu is a Zionist or chiefly influenced by Zionism.

What Is the Nakba? The term Nakba (Arabic: النكبة, “the catastrophe”) refers to the mass displacement of an estimated 700,000 Palestinians during the 1947–49 Arab–Israeli War that accompanied the creation of the State of Israel. It includes the loss of homes and land, the destruction or depopulation of hundreds of villages, and the creation of a long-term refugee crisis that remains unresolved. The Nakba is commemorated annually on 15 May and forms a central part of Palestinian historical memory and identity²¹.

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What Is Zionism?

Definition. Zionism is the Jewish nationalist movement that sought, and now supports, a Jewish state in the ancestral homeland. The term derives from “Zion”, a biblical name for Jerusalem and the Land of Israel¹.

Why It Arose. In the late 1800s, European antisemitism and the wider wave of national movements led figures such as Theodor Herzl to organise for a recognised Jewish homeland, combining diplomacy, settlement, and cultural revival^{1, 2}.

Key Strands of Zionism

• Political Zionism: diplomatic recognition and legal guarantees for a Jewish state¹.
• Labour / Practical Zionism: building “facts on the ground” through immigration, agriculture, and the kibbutz movement^{2, 3}.
• Revisionist Zionism: nationalist, security-first doctrine influencing the modern Israeli right³.
• Religious Zionism: national return framed as biblical fulfilment⁴.
• Cultural Zionism: revival of Hebrew language and Jewish culture⁵.

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How the Holocaust Shaped Modern Zionism

Zionism did not arise from the Holocaust. It began in the late nineteenth century, long before the rise of Nazism. However, the Holocaust fundamentally transformed the global and Jewish context in which Zionism operated, accelerating political support for a Jewish homeland².

Why the Holocaust Accelerated Support for Zionism

1. Statelessness became a life-and-death issue. Without a sovereign state, Jews were left unprotected and unable to flee genocide².
2. Western countries refused Jewish refugees. Events such as the turning away of the MS St. Louis demonstrated the dangers of statelessness¹¹.
3. Displaced survivors needed resettlement. Hundreds of thousands lived in DP camps before migrating to Palestine or elsewhere^{12, 16}.
4. Global sympathy shifted. Post-Holocaust sentiment influenced support for the 1947 UN Partition Plan^{13, 14, 15}.

Conclusion. The Holocaust did not create Zionism, but it reshaped its urgency and global reception, contributing to the diplomatic environment that enabled the creation of Israel in 1948.

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How Zionism Connects to Palestinian Displacement

1947–49 War and the Nakba. The UN Partition Plan triggered war, during which over 700,000 Palestinians were displaced and more than 400 villages were depopulated or destroyed. Scholars debate causes and intent, but the scale of displacement is well documented^{6, 19, 20}.

• Military operations and expulsions (with contested debate over intent).
• Siege and psychological warfare contributing to mass flight.
• Post-war property laws preventing return.

After 1967. Israel’s capture of the West Bank, Gaza, and East Jerusalem introduced a long-term military occupation and an expanding settlement enterprise that fragmented Palestinian land and deepened displacement pressures^{7, 10, 18}.

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Is Benjamin Netanyahu a Zionist or Influenced by Zionism?

Political lineage. Likud is descended from Revisionist Zionism, founded by Ze’ev Jabotinsky. Netanyahu’s father, Benzion Netanyahu, was a major figure in that tradition and deeply influenced his son’s worldview⁸.

Policy direction. Netanyahu has repeatedly opposed a Palestinian state and expanded settlement growth, reinforcing unilateral security control over the West Bank^{9, 10, 17}.

Conclusion. Netanyahu is both a Zionist and a political heir to Revisionist Zionism. His policies reflect a maximalist security approach that prioritises Jewish sovereignty between the river and the sea.

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Key Takeaways

• Zionism is diverse — political, cultural, labour, religious, and revisionist.
• The Holocaust accelerated the urgency and global support for Zionism.
• The Nakba produced a lasting Palestinian refugee crisis.
• Netanyahu’s ideology is rooted in Revisionist Zionism.

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References

1. Encyclopaedia Britannica. (2025). Zionism. https://www.britannica.com/topic/Zionism
2. University of Michigan, Centre for Middle Eastern and North African Studies. (n.d.). Zionism unit: Israel and Palestine — Section 1. https://lsa.umich.edu/.../Section1_Zionism.pdf
3. Jewish Virtual Library. (n.d.). Revisionist Zionism. https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/revisionist-zionism
4. Wikipedia contributors. (2025). Types of Zionism. In Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Types_of_Zionism
5. Temple Emanu-El. (n.d.). Types of Zionism. https://images.shulcloud.com/.../TypesofZionism.pdf
6. Encyclopaedia Britannica. (2024). 1948 Arab–Israeli War. https://www.britannica.com/event/1948-Arab-Israeli-War
7. Reuters. (2024, July 19). UN’s top court says Israel’s occupation and settlements are illegal. https://www.reuters.com/.../2024-07-19/
8. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. (2012). The enduring influence of Benjamin Netanyahu’s father. https://carnegieendowment.org/.../benjamin-netanyahus-father
9. Time Magazine. (2015, March 17). Netanyahu vows no Palestinian state while he is prime minister. https://time.com/3746427/
10. Associated Press. (2025, February 4). Jewish settler population in the West Bank keeps rising. https://apnews.com/.../f152a95
11. United States Holocaust Memorial Museum. (2024). Voyage of the St. Louis. https://encyclopedia.ushmm.org/.../voyage-of-the-st-louis
12. United States Holocaust Memorial Museum. (n.d.). Displaced persons. https://encyclopedia.ushmm.org/.../displaced-persons
13. United Nations. (1947). Resolution 181 (II): Future government of Palestine. https://www.un.org/unispal/.../auto-insert-185393
14. United Nations Digital Library. (1948). Future government of Palestine: Resolutions adopted during the 2nd session. https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/667161
15. United Nations. (n.d.). A/RES/181(II). https://docs.un.org/a/res/181(ii)
16. United States Holocaust Memorial Museum. (n.d.). The aftermath of the Holocaust. https://encyclopedia.ushmm.org/.../aftermath
17. Associated Press. (2023). Settler population in West Bank surpasses 500,000. https://apnews.com/.../e566
18. Reuters. (2025, March 18). Israel is ramping up annexation of the West Bank, UN rights chief says. https://www.reuters.com/.../2025-03-18/
19. Pappé, I. (2006). The ethnic cleansing of Palestine. Oneworld Publications.
20. Khalidi, W. (1992). All that remains: The Palestinian villages occupied and depopulated by Israel in 1948. Institute for Palestine Studies.
21. Encyclopaedia Britannica. (2024). Nakba. https://www.britannica.com/event/Nakba

About the Author

J. André Faust writes The Connected Mind, exploring how politics, economics, and society interlock. The guiding idea is to trace feedback, surface assumptions, and revise beliefs as evidence changes.

by J. André Faust (Nov 03, 2025)

The Architecture of Persuasion

Times have changed over the last 100 years. There was a time when the news we received was relatively accurate; however, there was still some interpretation that would be needed. Back in the early days of journalism, reporters made an honest attempt to provide the best testimonies available within the limits of their era. That is not to say that there wasn’t any propaganda operating alongside journalistic ethics, but the origin of propaganda then came primarily from the state ¹.

So why is it difficult in the contemporary world to determine what the probabilistic truths are when we are given information about local and international events? As far as mainstream journals go, they are answerable to their shareholders and advertisers, which may influence how they frame a story ².

Framing

Framing is a powerful tool of persuasion that warrants further examination. It is the process of selecting certain aspects of reality and presenting them in a way that promotes a particular interpretation, evaluation, or course of action ³. In other words, to frame is to structure information so that the audience’s attention, emotions, and understanding are guided toward one meaning while other interpretations are minimised or excluded.

Example of Framing

• Neutral report: “Protesters gathered outside the embassy today.”
• Framed report A: “Pro-Palestinian activists clashed with police outside the embassy.”
• Framed report B: “Citizens demanding an end to civilian deaths rallied peacefully outside the embassy.”

Each uses the same event but activates different schemas or heuristics — those mental shortcuts that shape how audiences interpret meaning — consistent with the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) developed by Richard E. Petty and John T. Cacioppo in the early 1980s ⁴. Framing exploits the peripheral processing route, which, according to the ELM, leads to quick decisions based on emotions, unlike its counterpart, the central processing route, where critical thinking lies.

There is a philosophical implication: how do we gain knowledge? Some philosophers believe that knowledge is either gained by experience or through testimonial knowledge ⁵, so framing would fall into the latter category — testimonial rather than experiential.

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Institutions of Persuasion

Over the decades, this art of narrative construction has evolved into a professional and academic discipline. A network of institutions now studies, teaches, and applies the principles of persuasion under the banners of “communications,” “strategic influence,” or “information management.” Some of these institutions emerged from journalism and media studies; others grew out of military or policy research. Together, they shape how much of the world understands truth, trust, and authority ⁶.

As journalism matured, persuasion itself became formalised. What began as intuition and state-sponsored propaganda evolved into an organised field of study. From the early experiments of Edward Bernays, who merged psychology with public relations ⁷, to the sociological insights of Erving Goffman ⁸ and the communication theories that followed, the techniques of influence were refined, codified, and taught. Today, entire schools and research centres are devoted to understanding and operationalising these dynamics — not only to inform, but to guide public opinion, manage perception, and sustain ideological coherence across societies.

Meta-Persuasion and the Social Media Arena

The rise of social media has redefined how persuasion operates. Platforms such as Facebook, X, Instagram, and TikTok have become open stages where users act as their own editors, publishers, and propagandists. Unlike the institutional media of the past, these digital ecosystems reward emotion over evidence ⁹. Algorithms are designed to amplify engagement, not accuracy, meaning that content which provokes anger, fear, or amusement travels farther than content that merely informs.

Within this environment, persuasion has become meta-persuasive — it no longer requires structured arguments or supporting data. Instead, it relies on memes, short captions, and emotionally charged imagery that compress complex issues into simple moral binaries. A single graphic or phrase can replace pages of analysis, inviting instant agreement or outrage. This process bypasses the central route of critical thought described in the ELM and activates the peripheral route — reaction without reflection.

Most users are not conscious propagandists. They share, repost, and comment out of genuine emotion — solidarity, humour, anger, or fear. Yet in doing so, they participate in a collective persuasion network where meaning is shaped by repetition and visual shorthand rather than reasoning. The result is a vast feedback system of unverified testimony that feels authentic precisely because it is personal.

In this sense, the social-media landscape functions as a crowdsourced extension of the institutions of persuasion. It decentralises influence, allowing individuals to become both consumers and producers of spin — each meme a micro-frame, each reaction an act of narrative reinforcement ¹⁰.

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From Institutions to Personalities

If institutions built the architecture of persuasion, personalities learned to live inside it. In the twenty-first century, the tools of influence once reserved for governments, broadcasters, and think tanks have migrated into the hands of individual communicators. Charismatic figures now command audiences larger than national networks, using the same psychological principles — framing, emotional priming, repetition, and identity appeal — that were once the domain of organised propaganda.

Through platforms like YouTube, X, and alternative media outlets, persuasion has become personal: the message and the messenger are one. Figures such as Alex Jones in the United States or Ezra Levant in Canada exemplify this transformation. They blur the boundary between journalism and performance, trading institutional credibility for emotional authenticity and ideological loyalty. In this new environment, persuasion is no longer engineered solely in boardrooms and research centres; it is streamed live, monetised, and endlessly amplified.

Personality-Driven Persuasion: Alex Jones and Ezra Levant

Alex Jones (United States)
Jones rose to prominence through his platform Infowars, cultivating an audience through fear-based persuasion and apocalyptic rhetoric ¹¹. His strategy relies on emotional saturation — overwhelming the audience with threat narratives, claims of hidden plots, and appeals to personal vigilance. By framing himself as the lone guardian of suppressed truth, he establishes cognitive closure: complex global events become moral dramas of good versus evil. The power of Jones’s persuasion lies not in evidence but in certainty. Within his ecosystem, doubt itself becomes proof of conspiracy.

Ezra Levant (Canada)
Levant’s Rebel News employs similar rhetorical techniques under a different national tone. Where Jones trades in conspiracy, Levant trades in indignation. His method is outrage framing: selecting issues that trigger moral or patriotic anger and presenting them as evidence of cultural betrayal ¹². The emotional register is nationalism rather than apocalypse, but the mechanism is the same — mobilising identity against authority. Levant’s success demonstrates how American-style populist rhetoric has adapted to Canadian sensibilities, turning media commentary into a vehicle for ideological solidarity.

The Common Mechanism. Both men exemplify persuasion through performative authenticity. By appearing unscripted, passionate, and persecuted, they generate trust through emotion rather than verification. Their influence shows how easily testimonial knowledge — the kind once entrusted to professional journalists — can be reshaped into belief systems sustained by repetition, loyalty, and shared grievance. In this sense, Jones and Levant are not outliers but products of the environment that institutions of persuasion helped to build: a world where truth competes for attention, and attention defines reality.

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The Uncertainty of Testimonial Truth

What began as the craft of journalism and evolved into a science of persuasion has now become an open contest of narratives. In this environment, knowledge itself becomes probabilistic: we no longer weigh facts alone, but the credibility of the source, the emotional resonance of the presentation, and the social validation that follows. Testimonial knowledge — once grounded in trust between journalist and public — has fragmented into thousands of competing testimonies, each claiming authenticity ¹³. The algorithms that drive digital media further distort this process, privileging intensity over evidence and emotion over coherence.

Within such a system, certainty becomes a luxury. Every story is framed, every frame is contested, and even the act of seeking truth is mediated through institutions and personalities with vested perspectives. What remains to the careful observer is not the pursuit of absolute truth but the estimation of probability — what version of events seems most consistent with the evidence and least dependent on emotional manipulation.

Israel and Palestine: The Collision of Narratives

Few conflicts reveal the mechanics of modern persuasion more clearly than Israel and Palestine. Each side presents its own version of reality: Hamas issues allegations of Israeli aggression; Israel counters with denials or reciprocal accusations. International outlets amplify or suppress details depending on editorial stance, national alignment, or audience expectation. Western networks often frame the conflict through the lens of security and terrorism, while Arab and Global South media frame it through occupation and resistance ¹⁴. The same event — an airstrike, a ceasefire, a protest — can emerge as two entirely different stories depending on who tells it and to whom.

In this collision of narratives, the challenge is no longer access to information, but navigating the architectures of persuasion that determine how information becomes belief.

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Conclusion: The Evolution of Influence

The study of persuasion has never been static. From Bernays’ early manipulation of symbols and desire, to the institutional refinement of messaging, to the algorithmic curation of attention, the methods have evolved while the goal has remained largely unchanged: to shape behaviour through perception ¹⁵. Whether the purpose is to sell a product, promote a policy, or influence belief, persuasion has always been less about helping people make better decisions than about ensuring they conform to the decisions already made for them.

Today, that process continues with increasing sophistication. Research into the psychology of influence, data analytics, and emotional priming is ongoing — not at the margins, but at the core of political, corporate, and technological systems. Artificial intelligence has become the newest and most powerful instrument in this continuum. It analyses sentiment, predicts behaviour, and generates tailored content that speaks directly to the emotional and cognitive biases of individuals. Where earlier institutions sought to persuade the public as a collective, AI allows persuasion to operate at the level of the person — one algorithmic nudge at a time ¹⁶.

In this environment, the architecture of persuasion is self-sustaining. It no longer needs a single propagandist or a central authority; the system itself learns what works and adapts. The result is a world where influence is ambient — woven into the interfaces we use, the stories we read, and the choices we think are our own.

The task for the thoughtful observer, then, is not to reject persuasion but to recognise it: to see how knowledge is shaped, how certainty is manufactured, and how consent is engineered. Understanding this does not free us entirely from influence, but it allows us to navigate it consciously, with eyes open to the mechanisms that turn communication into control.

About the author

J. André Faust explores the structural entanglements of politics, economics, and society. His work on The Connected Mind uses a layered-systems approach to trace feedback loops across institutions, media, and culture — always with the goal of revising beliefs in light of better evidence.

References

1. Bernays, E. (1928). Propaganda. Liveright Publishing.
2. McChesney, R. W. (2013). Digital Disconnect: How Capitalism Is Turning the Internet Against Democracy. The New Press.
3. Entman, R. M. (1993). “Framing: Toward Clarification of a Fractured Paradigm.” Journal of Communication, 43(4), 51–58.
4. Petty, R. E., & Cacioppo, J. T. (1986). Communication and Persuasion: Central and Peripheral Routes to Attitude Change. Springer-Verlag.
5. Coady, C. A. J. (1992). Testimony: A Philosophical Study. Oxford University Press. (See also Reid, T. (1764). An Inquiry into the Human Mind.)
6. Shorenstein Center on Media, Politics and Public Policy (Harvard University). Research archives. Accessed 2025.
7. Bernays, E. (1947). “The Engineering of Consent.” Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 250(1), 113–120.
8. Goffman, E. (1974). Frame Analysis: An Essay on the Organization of Experience. Harvard University Press.
9. Vosoughi, S., Roy, D., & Aral, S. (2018). “The Spread of True and False News Online.” Science, 359(6380), 1146–1151.
10. NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence. (2024). Annual Report on Information Operations. Riga.
11. LaFrance, A. (2019). “The Prophet of Paranoia.” The Atlantic.
12. Taras, D. (2020). “Rebel News and the Politics of Outrage.” Canadian Journal of Media Studies.
13. Coady, C. A. J. (1992). Testimony: A Philosophical Study. Oxford University Press.
14. BBC Monitoring. (2024). “Media Coverage Comparative Analysis: Israel–Gaza Conflict.”
15. O’Shaughnessy, N. J. (2017). Marketing the Third Reich: Persuasion and Propaganda in Nazi Germany. Routledge.
16. Tufekci, Z. (2022). “Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Persuasion.” MIT Technology Review.

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The Illusion of a Ceasefire: Reframing Control Through Managed Conflict

The Illusion of Peace

by J. André Faust (October 29, 2025)

1. The ceasefire that never was

Officials continue to describe events as a ceasefire, yet air strikes, raids and retaliations have persisted. Recent coverage by BBC News notes fresh Israeli strikes and competing claims of violations (BBC News, 29 Oct 2025). The Toronto Star / Associated Press characterises the truce as fragile, brokered by the United States, and repeatedly tested by flare-ups (Toronto Star / AP, 29 Oct 2025).

2. Language as control

Framing shapes reality for audiences. JD Vance stated that the ceasefire is holding, while allowing for “little skirmishes,” which reframes ongoing violence as incidental (BBC live coverage, 29 Oct 2025). Turkey’s foreign ministry condemned Israeli strikes as open violations of the agreement, demonstrating how identical events are cast in opposite moral terms (Turkey MFA statement, 29 Oct 2025).

3. Controlled chaos as strategy

The United States signals that Israel may strike when attacked, while insisting the broader deal must hold (Toronto Star / AP, 29 Oct 2025). This produces bounded instability, where limited violence is permitted, yet narrative control is maintained. In practice this resembles a managed-conflict model rather than peace.

4. Proxies and plausible deniability

Reports describe rival armed groups in Gaza, sometimes referred to as “Popular Forces,” operating alongside or against Hamas (BBC reporting, 29 Oct 2025). Whether directly armed, tolerated, or simply exploited, such actors create ambiguity that can justify renewed strikes and shift blame. ICRC also criticised a staged recovery of remains as unacceptable, underscoring the information fog that aids deniability (ICRC statement, 29 Oct 2025).

5. The United States as the stabilising illusion

Senior US officials, including the vice-president and the secretary of state, continue high-visibility visits and statements to signal oversight, even as strikes resume and pause. This projects assurance without necessarily imposing accountability (Toronto Star / AP, 29 Oct 2025). The observer’s presence alters outcomes, a political analogue of measurement in physics.

6. Phase one stasis

Coverage indicates the agreement remains stuck in its initial exchange phase, with disputes over the handling of deceased hostages, and continued allegations of violations (Toronto Star / AP, 29 Oct 2025; BBC live, 29 Oct 2025). Activity persists, yet progress stalls, which resembles dynamic stasis rather than transition.

7. The systems view: illusion as policy

In a layered-systems perspective, ceasefire and conflict lie on the same operational curve. Proxies act as disturbance nodes, language acts as a selector, and observation by powerful states functions as a stabiliser. The result is a policy of controlled uncertainty. When instability is instrumentally useful, ceasefire becomes theatre.

8. Applying the 4D Connectivity Model

Within the 4D Connectivity Model, each vertex represents a point of convergence across four dimensions—three spatial and one temporal. Every moment in time, like every position in space, contains an infinite potential field of outcomes. Each decision, observation, or reaction selects one trajectory from that field, momentarily collapsing probability into experience.

Because every vertex in both time and space can unfold into countless possibilities, absolute predictability is impossible. Systems that appear stable are merely temporary alignments within an ever-changing probability matrix. The Israel–Gaza situation illustrates this vividly: each airstrike, statement, or negotiation does not simply change the present — it reshapes the range of all possible futures that follow.

In this framework, time is not a line but a dynamic landscape of branching possibilities. What we call “control” or “peace” exists only as a transient pattern, constantly rewritten by new events and observations. The illusion of a permanent ceasefire collapses under this model, revealing a deeper reality: that every moment generates new dimensions of uncertainty.

About the author

J.  André Faust examines the structural entanglements of politics, economics and society. He explores how single moments, from a lone act of violence to a policy choice, can unfold into decades of social and cultural change.

His approach treats reality like a layered 3D model. Systems overlap, interact and sometimes obscure one another. Forecasts are provisional, hidden layers and feedback loops are often still at work.

Guiding idea: understand connections, trace feedback and revise beliefs as new layers come into view.

References & Sources

1. BBC News (29 Oct 2025). Israel strikes Gaza after accusing Hamas of ceasefire violations. Live updates.
2. Toronto Star / Associated Press (29 Oct 2025). US determined to prevent the collapse of the Gaza ceasefire after overnight airstrikes.
3. International Committee of the Red Cross (29 Oct 2025). Statement on alleged staged recovery of hostage remains.
4. Turkey Ministry of Foreign Affairs (29 Oct 2025). Statement on Israeli strikes and ceasefire commitments.
5. Al Jazeera (29 Sep 2025). Full text of Trump’s 20-point plan to end the Gaza war.

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Palestine: The Second Intifada – The Uprising That Divided a Nation

By J. André Faust (Oct 26, 2025)

The Second Intifada – The Uprising That Divided a Nation

The Second Intifada (Arabic: al-Intifāḍa al-Thāniya), which erupted in late September 2000, was a major Palestinian uprising against Israeli occupation that lasted roughly until 2005. It marked the collapse of the optimism born from the Oslo Accords and a return to large-scale violence after years of stalled diplomacy (Beinin & Hajjar, 2014; BBC, 2010).

1. From the First Intifada to Oslo

The First Intifada (1987–1993) was a largely grass-roots movement driven by daily hardship under occupation. It combined strikes, boycotts, and demonstrations to challenge Israeli control (Khalidi, 2007). The resulting Oslo Accords were intended to establish Palestinian self-rule within five years and move toward a two-state solution. However, continued settlement expansion, economic restrictions, and growing cynicism within both societies eroded the process long before it reached fruition (Lustick, 2006).

2. The Road to the Second Intifada

By 1999, peace talks had stalled. Many Palestinians perceived Oslo as perpetuating dependency rather than ending occupation. Critics saw the Palestinian Authority as weak and corrupt, while many Israelis viewed continued violence as proof that concessions were futile. The immediate spark came on 28 September 2000, when Israeli opposition leader Ariel Sharon visited the al-Aqsa Mosque compound (Temple Mount) in Jerusalem—a site sacred to Muslims and Jews. The visit was widely seen as a provocation, igniting protests that spread across the territories (AP, 2000).

3. From Protest to Warfare

Unlike the civil resistance of the first uprising, the Second Intifada quickly became militarised. Armed factions—including Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and Fatah’s al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades—launched bombings and shooting attacks inside Israel. Israel responded with targeted assassinations, large-scale incursions into West Bank cities (notably Operation Defensive Shield), and the construction of the separation barrier (Human Rights Watch, 2002). By 2005, roughly 3,000 Palestinians and 1,000 Israelis had been killed (B’Tselem, 2006).

4. Continuity and Divergence

Aspect	First Intifada (1987–1993)	Second Intifada (2000–2005)
Nature	Civil resistance, boycotts	Armed uprising, suicide bombings
Leadership	Grass-roots / PLO coordination	Fatah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad factions
Trigger	Accumulated hardship	Sharon visit + Oslo collapse
Outcome	Oslo Accords, creation of PA	Re-entry of IDF into West Bank; Fatah–Hamas division

The Second Intifada was thus an eruption of unfulfilled expectations from the first. Where Oslo had promised transformation, Palestinians witnessed deeper control and fragmentation—culminating in the political split that endures between Fatah in the West Bank and Hamas in Gaza.

5. The Oslo Framework: A Fragile Architecture

Between 1993 and 2000, a sequence of agreements known as the Oslo framework attempted to transform the conflict into a phased peace process. Each accord advanced the idea of Palestinian self-rule, yet none resolved the core disputes of sovereignty, borders, refugees, and Jerusalem. The structure looked solid on paper but remained fragile in practice—a temporary architecture suspended between hope and hostility.

Oslo I: Declaration of Principles (1993)

Signed at the White House on 13 September 1993, Oslo I established mutual recognition—Israel acknowledged the PLO as the representative of the Palestinian people, and the PLO recognised Israel’s right to exist—and set a five-year transition toward final-status talks, with limited Palestinian self-government in Gaza and parts of the West Bank (Beinin & Hajjar, 2014).

Oslo II: The Taba Agreement (1995)

Signed on 28 September 1995, Oslo II expanded autonomy and divided the West Bank into Areas A (full PA control), B (PA civil control with Israeli security), and C (full Israeli control—about 60% of the West Bank). It also provided for Palestinian elections and security coordination. The division created a patchwork geography that complicated movement and governance; Rabin’s assassination weeks later further eroded trust.

Later Attempts to Salvage Oslo

• Hebron Protocol (1997): Partitioned Hebron into Israeli- and Palestinian-administered sectors.
• Wye River Memorandum (1998): Called for further redeployments and security steps; implementation stalled.
• Camp David Summit (2000): A final-status push on borders, refugees, and Jerusalem collapsed; weeks later, the Second Intifada began.

Each agreement produced a brief moment of coherence in a system under strain.

6. The Oslo Accords: A Promise Deferred

The accords created the Palestinian Authority (PA) and recognised mutual legitimacy (Rabinovich, 2017), but left the most critical issues—Jerusalem, refugees, settlements, borders—for later. Israel retained full control over Area C and movement between Palestinian zones. By the late 1990s, settlement growth and frequent closures convinced many Palestinians that Oslo had repackaged occupation rather than ended it. Within Israel, politics polarised; Rabin’s 1995 assassination signalled the domestic cost of compromise.

7. Marwan Barghouti: The Imprisoned Symbol of Unity

Marwan Barghouti emerged during the First Intifada as a Fatah organiser and later a leading member of the Palestinian Legislative Council. Advocating a two-state solution while defending a right to resist occupation, he sought to bridge diplomacy and defiance (Milton-Edwards, 2008). During the Second Intifada, Israel accused him of directing the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades. Captured in 2002 and convicted in 2004 for involvement in attacks that killed five Israelis, he received five life sentences. He refused to recognise the court’s authority, turning the trial into a political statement.

From prison, Barghouti became a rallying figure, often compared to Nelson Mandela. Polls consistently rank him the most popular potential successor to Mahmoud Abbas. His name resurfaced in 2025 when the U.S. signalled that Israel might be pressed to consider his release as part of post-Hamas reconstruction efforts (Associated Press, 2025).

8. The 4D Perspective: Cycles of Entanglement and Collapse

Within the 4D dynamic connectivity model, the two Intifadas appear as successive phase transitions in a single historical field. Each cycle builds pressure, releases energy, and re-entangles actors in new configurations of conflict and control.

Phase One (1967–1987): Compression of Energy

Post-1967 occupation created a high-pressure field—intense social energy constrained by external dominance. The First Intifada was the spontaneous discharge of that pressure through largely non-violent means.

Phase Two (1993–2000): Oscillation and Interference

The Oslo Accords generated overlapping expectations: peace versus sovereignty. These waveforms interfered destructively as settlement expansion and checkpoints eroded trust, setting conditions for the next collapse.

Phase Three (2000–2005): Resonance Collapse

The Second Intifada represented the decoherence of Oslo’s waveform: both sides locked in violent resonance until the system lost coherence, bifurcating into Fatah’s West Bank and Hamas’s Gaza.

9. Present Layer: Toward a New Equilibrium

Current discussion surrounding Marwan Barghouti’s potential release illustrates another attempt at re-stabilising the field (Associated Press, 2025). From a systems view:

• Barghouti embodies latent legitimacy—an unmeasured particle capable of re-cohering Palestinian politics.
• Hamas’s decline dissipates one energy mode, allowing reconfiguration.
• The two-state framework remains the lowest-entropy equilibrium, achievable only if political vectors align toward coexistence rather than control.

10. Closing Thought: The Field Remembers

Suppressed energy does not vanish; it accumulates. The First Intifada converted despair into diplomacy. The Second turned disillusionment into division. The next phase will test whether the system can transform trauma into coherence: a stable alignment of justice, security, and recognition.

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References

Associated Press. (2000). Timeline: Ariel Sharon visit to al-Aqsa Mosque and subsequent clashes.
Associated Press. (2025, October 23). Trump mulls asking Israel to free Palestinian leader Barghouti.
BBC News. (2010). Q&A: Second Intifada.
Beinin, J., & Hajjar, L. (2014). Palestine, Israel and the Arab–Israeli Conflict. Middle East Research and Information Project.
B’Tselem. (2006). Fatalities in the Second Intifada.
Human Rights Watch. (2002). Israel, the West Bank and Gaza: Unlawful Killings and Collective Punishment.
Khalidi, R. (2007). The Iron Cage: The Story of the Palestinian Struggle for Statehood. Beacon Press.
Lustick, I. (2006). Trapped in the War on Terror. University of Pennsylvania Press.
Milton-Edwards, B. (2008). Hamas: The Islamic Resistance Movement. Polity Press.
Rabinovich, I. (2017). Yitzhak Rabin: Soldier, Leader, Statesman. Yale University Press.

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About the Author

J. André Faust is a systems thinker and analyst whose work explores the structural entanglements of politics, economics, and society. Through The Connected Mind, he examines how historical patterns and feedback loops shape the present and constrain the future. His current research develops a 4D Dynamic Connectivity Model — a framework for tracing interactions across time, scale, and ideology to reveal where stability or collapse may emerge next.

From Ottoman Collapse to Modern Chaos: The Hidden Links Behind Today’s Conflicts

Figure 1. From Ottoman Collapse to Modern Chaos — visual representation of historical fragmentation and modern entanglements.

From the Fall of Empires to the Fracture of Order

How the Ottoman Collapse Still Shapes Today’s Conflicts — and the New Probabilities Ahead

by J. André Faust (October 22, 2025)

Abstract

This essay applies a 4D probabilistic lens to show how the collapse of the Ottoman Empire produced a branching field of geopolitical possibilities whose aftershocks shape the Israel–Palestine crisis and parallel dynamics in Russia–Ukraine. Each historical moment contained multiple potential outcomes that were unknowable to actors within their timeframe. The essay argues that modern double standards and external interventions are not anomalies but structural continuities. Finally, it considers Donald Trump’s re-entry into high-stakes decision-making as a new uncertainty variable that alters the current probability landscape; the realised outcome will only be known after the fact.

When the Ottoman Empire fell in 1918, it released not only provinces but possibilities. Empires do not simply collapse; they disintegrate into probability fields where competing futures coexist until one is realised. In Palestine, imperial pluralism gave way to nationalist partition and occupation; identities hardened, and external powers redrew the map according to their interests (Cleveland & Bunton, 2024; UNGA, 1947; Yale Law School, 1916, 1917).

1) The Ottoman Root

Under the Ottoman millet system, Muslims, Christians, and Jews lived within an unequal but plural legal framework. When that umbrella vanished after the First World War, Britain and France filled the vacuum. The Sykes–Picot Agreement divided Ottoman lands into spheres, and the Balfour Declaration supported a Jewish national home while promising not to prejudice the rights of existing non-Jewish communities (Yale Law School, 1916, 1917).

2) From Mandate to Partition to Occupation

The British Mandate preserved aspects of Ottoman administration but inverted the political logic, catalysing Arab and Jewish national movements. The United Nations later endorsed partition in Resolution 181, accelerating a path toward war and long-term displacement (UNGA, 1947; Cleveland & Bunton, 2024). Ottoman land records still recur in disputes, a reminder that empire’s paperwork remains active evidence in the present.

3) The Parallel Case: Russia’s Imperial Successor

The 1991 dissolution of the USSR echoed Ottoman dynamics: multi-ethnic empire, ambiguous borders, minorities outside new states. NATO enlargement recast the security field and sharpened Russian threat perceptions, producing a frontier of chronic insecurity (NATO, 2024). As with Palestine, historical claims and contemporary security narratives collide with international law and power politics (International Criminal Court, 2023).

4) History as a Multiverse of Probabilities

Each junction — Sykes–Picot, Balfour, Partition, post-1967 policy — offered multiple possible futures. From within those moments, outcomes were uncertain. Decisions narrowed the field without eliminating uncertainty, much like observation collapsing a wave function. The 4D Dynamic Connectivity Model treats these as branching probability clouds that repeatedly collapse into realised sequences (Cleveland & Bunton, 2024).

5) Double Standards and External Power

Russia is sanctioned and isolated after annexations in Ukraine, while Israel’s occupation is condemned in principle but protected in practice by key allies. The asymmetry shows up in legal venues as well: the ICC issued arrest warrants in both situations (International Criminal Court, 2023; International Criminal Court, 2024), and the World Court has now advised that Israel must allow UN aid into Gaza and ensure basic needs are met (Reuters, 2025). The pattern reflects alliance structures more than neutral principle.

6) The Trump Variable: A New Uncertainty Node

Donald Trump’s re-entry adds a high-variance node to an already entangled system. Policy towards Israel–Palestine, NATO, and international courts may shift rapidly. Recent US measures targeting ICC officials show how great-power politics can re-weight legal processes and incentives across the field (U.S. Department of State, 2025). In probabilistic terms, this is a disturbance to the wave: multiple plausible futures coexist, and the actual outcome will only be known after observation resolves uncertainty.

7) The Living Wave of History

From Ottoman collapse to Soviet dissolution, from Partition to NATO enlargement, each decision re-entangles the global system. We do not predict a single future; we map probability flows. The Israel–Palestine and Russia–Ukraine crises are not anomalies. They are the latest collapses in a century-long superposition of outcomes. Until we address the structural inheritance of empire, we will keep reliving aftershocks rather than resolving the quake.

8) Conclusion

The collapse of the Ottoman Empire, and later of the Soviet Union, demonstrates that history behaves less like a line and more like a multidimensional field of probabilities. Each empire held diversity in suspension; its fall released competing forces that re-entangled the world in new configurations of power and identity. The resulting crises—from Gaza to Donbas—are not separate events but linked outcomes in a shared systemic chain.

Understanding this through the 4D Dynamic Connectivity Model helps us see that prediction is impossible in the strict sense: every decision, policy, or intervention is an observation that alters the field itself. Donald Trump’s renewed engagement in Middle Eastern and global policy represents the next observation point, one that could collapse the wave toward renewed conflict or an unexpected equilibrium. Only hindsight will reveal which branch of history we will inhabit.

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References

1. Cleveland, W. L., & Bunton, M. (2024). A history of the modern Middle East (7th ed.). Routledge. https://www.routledge.com/A-History-of-the-Modern-Middle-East/Cleveland-Bunton/p/book/9780367516468
2. International Criminal Court. (2023, March 17). Situation in Ukraine: ICC judges issue arrest warrants against Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova. https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-against-vladimir-vladimirovich-putin-and
3. International Criminal Court. (2024, November 21). Situation in the State of Palestine: ICC Pre-Trial Chamber I rejects the State of Israel’s challenges to jurisdiction and issues warrants of arrest for Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant. https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-state-palestine-icc-pre-trial-chamber-i-rejects-state-israels-challenges
4. NATO. (2024, October 3). Topic: Enlargement and Article 10. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49212.htm
5. Reuters. (2025, October 22). World Court says Israel must allow U.N. aid to Gaza and ensure basic needs of Palestinians are met. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/world-court-give-opinion-israels-obligations-allow-aid-palestinians-2025-10-22/
6. U.S. Department of State. (2025, August 20). Imposing further sanctions in response to the ICC’s ongoing threat to Americans and Israelis. https://www.state.gov/releases/2025/08/imposing-further-sanctions-in-response-to-the-iccs-ongoing-threat-to-americans-and-israelis
7. United Nations General Assembly. (1947, November 29). Resolution 181 (II): Future government of Palestine. Security Council Report archive PDF. https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/A%20RES%20181%20%28II%29.pdf
8. Yale Law School. (1916). The Sykes–Picot Agreement. The Avalon Project. https://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/sykes.asp
9. Yale Law School. (1917). The Balfour Declaration. The Avalon Project. https://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/balfour.asp

About the author

J. André Faust writes The Connected Mind, an inquiry into the structural entanglements of politics, economics, and society. The guiding idea is simple: trace feedback, weigh probabilities, and revise beliefs in light of new evidence.

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Origins of Hamas: The First Intifada — The Uprising That Redefined Resistance

by J. André Faust (October 19, 2025)

In December 1987, an Israeli army truck struck and killed four Palestinian workers in Gaza. The protests that followed ignited the First Intifada — an uprising that redefined Palestinian resistance and gave birth to Hamas, the Islamic Resistance Movement (BBC News, 2002).

Arabic: الانتفاضة الأولى (al-Intifāḍa al-Ūlā — “the first uprising”)

Origins

The uprising spread rapidly across the West Bank and Gaza Strip, driven by anger over two decades of occupation, land seizures, and economic hardship (Smith, 1990).

Nature of the movement

The First Intifada was a grassroots civil resistance rather than a war between armies. Local networks coordinated:

• General strikes and shop closures
• Boycotts of Israeli goods
• Refusal to pay certain taxes
• Graffiti and mass demonstrations

The enduring image that reached global audiences was stone-throwing youths confronting armed soldiers (U.N. Chronicle, 1988; Smith, 1990).

Organisation

Coordinated by local committees in schools, unions, and mosques rather than the exiled PLO leadership, the Intifada relied on community networks that sustained civil disobedience (U.N. Chronicle, 1988; Smith, 1990).

Israeli response

Israel deployed large numbers of troops, imposed curfews, and conducted mass arrests. Use of force, including live ammunition, drew international criticism and intensified scrutiny of conditions under occupation (Amnesty International, 1989; Human Rights Watch, 1990).

Consequences

The uprising shifted global opinion, pushed the PLO toward negotiation, and paved the way for the Oslo peace process. Amid this turmoil, Hamas formally emerged in 1987, providing an Islamic, community-based alternative to the PLO’s secular nationalism (Quandt, 1993; Shlaim, 1994).

Casualties

Roughly 1 200 Palestinians and 160 Israelis were killed during the uprising, with thousands more injured or imprisoned (Smith, 1990).

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Legacy

The First Intifada transformed the Palestinian struggle from a distant guerrilla campaign into a grassroots civil movement seen worldwide. Its legacy still shapes debates on recognition, resistance, and the quest for statehood.

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References

• Amnesty International. (1989). Israel and the Occupied Territories: The Military Justice System in the Occupied Territories.
• BBC News. (2002). Timeline: The First Intifada. Retrieved from https://news.bbc.co.uk/
• Human Rights Watch. (1990). A Nation Under Siege: Human Rights in the Occupied Territories.
• Quandt, W. B. (1993). Peace Process: American Diplomacy and the Arab–Israeli Conflict Since 1967. Brookings Institution Press.
• Shlaim, A. (1994). The Politics of Partition: King Abdullah, the Zionists, and Palestine 1921–1951. Oxford University Press.
• Smith, C. D. (1990). Palestine and the Arab–Israeli Conflict. St. Martin’s Press.
• United Nations Chronicle. (1988). Intifada: The Uprising Continues, Vol. 25(3).

About the author

J.  André Faust examines the structural entanglements of politics, economics and society. He explores how single moments, from a lone act of violence to a policy choice, can unfold into decades of social and cultural change.

His approach treats reality like a layered 3D model. Systems overlap, interact and sometimes obscure one another. Forecasts are provisional; hidden layers and feedback loops are often still at work.

Guiding idea: understand connections, trace feedback and revise beliefs as new layers come into view.

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