The Proxy Variable: How Controlled Chaos Becomes a Weapon
by J. André Faust (October 19, 2025)
According to BBC News (19 Oct 2025), Israel launched new air strikes in southern Gaza after accusing Hamas of violating the Trump-brokered ceasefire by firing on Israeli troops near Rafah. Hamas denied involvement, claiming that smaller armed groups — locally called the “Popular Forces” — were responsible. These gangs, said to be armed and supported by Israel, suggest that a proxy war is unfolding within Gaza’s borders.
Reuters and the Associated Press reported that the escalation followed the first phase of prisoner and hostage exchanges under President Trump’s twenty-point ceasefire plan. While Washington frames the process as “peace through strength,” the on-the-ground reality has fractured into overlapping zones of control and narrative.
Historically, Israel has used internal Palestinian divisions to weaken central authority. In the 1980s, Israeli intelligence tolerated Islamist charities that later evolved into Hamas, partly to counterbalance the secular PLO. Subsequent coordination with Fatah deepened the fragmentation. Today’s emergence of armed gangs in Gaza suggests a revival of that strategy under new conditions.
The Proxy Variable
In systems terms, a proxy is a variable deliberately introduced into the field. It injects uncertainty and redirects accountability. Within my Unified Theory of Entanglement, this becomes the Proxy Variable — a disturbance node that reshapes probabilities without appearing as a direct actor.
Each explosion, denial, or diplomatic statement alters the perception field. As PBS NewsHour noted in October 2025, efforts to end the war are constrained by “conflicting incentives” — a polite way of saying that each side operates within its own reality frame. Israelis see renewed threats; Palestinians see sabotage; Americans see justification for stabilisation. The truth collapses differently for each observer.
Inside Israel, criticism of Prime Minister Netanyahu has intensified. Nieman Reports (2025) documented his widening conflict with domestic media, while families of hostages accuse him of delays and mismanagement. The result is a perceptual inversion: Trump is being celebrated as the decisive deal-maker, while Netanyahu is cast as the obstructive partner.
In this environment, controlled chaos becomes a tool of governance. It is not the breakdown of order — it is order redesigned to remain unstable. From an entanglement perspective, the Proxy Variable allows dominant powers to manipulate instability itself, generating endless justification for intervention while obscuring the origin of violence.
About the author
J. André Faust examines the structural entanglements of politics, economics and society. He explores how single moments, from a lone act of violence to a policy choice, can unfold into decades of social and cultural change.
His approach treats reality like a layered 3D model. Systems overlap, interact and sometimes obscure one another. Forecasts are provisional; hidden layers and feedback loops are often still at work.
Guiding idea: understand connections, trace feedback and revise beliefs as new layers come into view.
References & Sources
- BBC News (19 Oct 2025). Israel launches air strikes in Gaza, accusing Hamas of “blatant violation of ceasefire.”
- Reuters (12 Oct 2025). Ceasefire holds in Gaza ahead of hostage release and Trump’s visit to Israel.
- Associated Press (12 Oct 2025). First seven hostages freed as part of Gaza ceasefire are in Israeli custody.
- Times of Israel (11 Oct 2025). Israel publishes list of 250 security prisoners slated for release as part of Gaza deal.
- PBS NewsHour (Oct 2025). Why it is so hard to end the war in Gaza.
- Nieman Reports (2025). Netanyahu vs the Israeli Media.
