The Illusion of a Ceasefire: Reframing Control Through Managed Conflict

The Illusion of Peace

by J. André Faust (October 29, 2025)

1. The ceasefire that never was

Officials continue to describe events as a ceasefire, yet air strikes, raids and retaliations have persisted. Recent coverage by BBC News notes fresh Israeli strikes and competing claims of violations (BBC News, 29 Oct 2025). The Toronto Star / Associated Press characterises the truce as fragile, brokered by the United States, and repeatedly tested by flare-ups (Toronto Star / AP, 29 Oct 2025).

2. Language as control

Framing shapes reality for audiences. JD Vance stated that the ceasefire is holding, while allowing for “little skirmishes,” which reframes ongoing violence as incidental (BBC live coverage, 29 Oct 2025). Turkey’s foreign ministry condemned Israeli strikes as open violations of the agreement, demonstrating how identical events are cast in opposite moral terms (Turkey MFA statement, 29 Oct 2025).

3. Controlled chaos as strategy

The United States signals that Israel may strike when attacked, while insisting the broader deal must hold (Toronto Star / AP, 29 Oct 2025). This produces bounded instability, where limited violence is permitted, yet narrative control is maintained. In practice this resembles a managed-conflict model rather than peace.

4. Proxies and plausible deniability

Reports describe rival armed groups in Gaza, sometimes referred to as “Popular Forces,” operating alongside or against Hamas (BBC reporting, 29 Oct 2025). Whether directly armed, tolerated, or simply exploited, such actors create ambiguity that can justify renewed strikes and shift blame. ICRC also criticised a staged recovery of remains as unacceptable, underscoring the information fog that aids deniability (ICRC statement, 29 Oct 2025).

5. The United States as the stabilising illusion

Senior US officials, including the vice-president and the secretary of state, continue high-visibility visits and statements to signal oversight, even as strikes resume and pause. This projects assurance without necessarily imposing accountability (Toronto Star / AP, 29 Oct 2025). The observer’s presence alters outcomes, a political analogue of measurement in physics.

6. Phase one stasis

Coverage indicates the agreement remains stuck in its initial exchange phase, with disputes over the handling of deceased hostages, and continued allegations of violations (Toronto Star / AP, 29 Oct 2025; BBC live, 29 Oct 2025). Activity persists, yet progress stalls, which resembles dynamic stasis rather than transition.

7. The systems view: illusion as policy

In a layered-systems perspective, ceasefire and conflict lie on the same operational curve. Proxies act as disturbance nodes, language acts as a selector, and observation by powerful states functions as a stabiliser. The result is a policy of controlled uncertainty. When instability is instrumentally useful, ceasefire becomes theatre.

8. Applying the 4D Connectivity Model

Within the 4D Connectivity Model, each vertex represents a point of convergence across four dimensions—three spatial and one temporal. Every moment in time, like every position in space, contains an infinite potential field of outcomes. Each decision, observation, or reaction selects one trajectory from that field, momentarily collapsing probability into experience.

Because every vertex in both time and space can unfold into countless possibilities, absolute predictability is impossible. Systems that appear stable are merely temporary alignments within an ever-changing probability matrix. The Israel–Gaza situation illustrates this vividly: each airstrike, statement, or negotiation does not simply change the present — it reshapes the range of all possible futures that follow.

In this framework, time is not a line but a dynamic landscape of branching possibilities. What we call “control” or “peace” exists only as a transient pattern, constantly rewritten by new events and observations. The illusion of a permanent ceasefire collapses under this model, revealing a deeper reality: that every moment generates new dimensions of uncertainty.

About the author

J.  André Faust examines the structural entanglements of politics, economics and society. He explores how single moments, from a lone act of violence to a policy choice, can unfold into decades of social and cultural change.

His approach treats reality like a layered 3D model. Systems overlap, interact and sometimes obscure one another. Forecasts are provisional, hidden layers and feedback loops are often still at work.

Guiding idea: understand connections, trace feedback and revise beliefs as new layers come into view.

References & Sources

1. BBC News (29 Oct 2025). Israel strikes Gaza after accusing Hamas of ceasefire violations. Live updates.
2. Toronto Star / Associated Press (29 Oct 2025). US determined to prevent the collapse of the Gaza ceasefire after overnight airstrikes.
3. International Committee of the Red Cross (29 Oct 2025). Statement on alleged staged recovery of hostage remains.
4. Turkey Ministry of Foreign Affairs (29 Oct 2025). Statement on Israeli strikes and ceasefire commitments.
5. Al Jazeera (29 Sep 2025). Full text of Trump’s 20-point plan to end the Gaza war.

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Israel And The Proxy Variable: How Controlled Chaos Becomes a Weapon

The Proxy Variable: How Controlled Chaos Becomes a Weapon

by J. André Faust (October 19, 2025)

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According to BBC News (19 Oct 2025), Israel launched new air strikes in southern Gaza after accusing Hamas of violating the Trump-brokered ceasefire by firing on Israeli troops near Rafah. Hamas denied involvement, claiming that smaller armed groups — locally called the “Popular Forces” — were responsible. These gangs, said to be armed and supported by Israel, suggest that a proxy war is unfolding within Gaza’s borders.

Reuters and the Associated Press reported that the escalation followed the first phase of prisoner and hostage exchanges under President Trump’s twenty-point ceasefire plan. While Washington frames the process as “peace through strength,” the on-the-ground reality has fractured into overlapping zones of control and narrative.

Historically, Israel has used internal Palestinian divisions to weaken central authority. In the 1980s, Israeli intelligence tolerated Islamist charities that later evolved into Hamas, partly to counterbalance the secular PLO. Subsequent coordination with Fatah deepened the fragmentation. Today’s emergence of armed gangs in Gaza suggests a revival of that strategy under new conditions.

The Proxy Variable

In systems terms, a proxy is a variable deliberately introduced into the field. It injects uncertainty and redirects accountability. Within my Unified Theory of Entanglement, this becomes the Proxy Variable — a disturbance node that reshapes probabilities without appearing as a direct actor.

Each explosion, denial, or diplomatic statement alters the perception field. As PBS NewsHour noted in October 2025, efforts to end the war are constrained by “conflicting incentives” — a polite way of saying that each side operates within its own reality frame. Israelis see renewed threats; Palestinians see sabotage; Americans see justification for stabilisation. The truth collapses differently for each observer.

Inside Israel, criticism of Prime Minister Netanyahu has intensified. Nieman Reports (2025) documented his widening conflict with domestic media, while families of hostages accuse him of delays and mismanagement. The result is a perceptual inversion: Trump is being celebrated as the decisive deal-maker, while Netanyahu is cast as the obstructive partner.

In this environment, controlled chaos becomes a tool of governance. It is not the breakdown of order — it is order redesigned to remain unstable. From an entanglement perspective, the Proxy Variable allows dominant powers to manipulate instability itself, generating endless justification for intervention while obscuring the origin of violence.

About the author

J.  André Faust examines the structural entanglements of politics, economics and society. He explores how single moments, from a lone act of violence to a policy choice, can unfold into decades of social and cultural change.

His approach treats reality like a layered 3D model. Systems overlap, interact and sometimes obscure one another. Forecasts are provisional; hidden layers and feedback loops are often still at work.

Guiding idea: understand connections, trace feedback and revise beliefs as new layers come into view.

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References & Sources

1. BBC News (19 Oct 2025). Israel launches air strikes in Gaza, accusing Hamas of “blatant violation of ceasefire.”
2. Reuters (12 Oct 2025). Ceasefire holds in Gaza ahead of hostage release and Trump’s visit to Israel.
3. Associated Press (12 Oct 2025). First seven hostages freed as part of Gaza ceasefire are in Israeli custody.
4. Times of Israel (11 Oct 2025). Israel publishes list of 250 security prisoners slated for release as part of Gaza deal.
5. PBS NewsHour (Oct 2025). Why it is so hard to end the war in Gaza.
6. Nieman Reports (2025). Netanyahu vs the Israeli Media.

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